Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
The regime has overthrown, so how will the formula survive?
Written by Nasser Kandil,
In the twenty-third anniversary of Al-Taif Agreement, which ended the civil war in Lebanon, it has been re-circulated about a constructional glorifying for this agreement as a magic receipt for all crises, and an ability to surpass all the divisions.
Al–Taif Agreement has not achieved till now more than stopping the civil war, the fears of the Lebanese from the black previous experience, the presence of strong army, and the absence of the international regional interests in funding the war and encouraging to wade into it, all of these have constituted initiative reasons of hindering the civil war, while the force of the resistance alone, which is capable of any military termination towards any internal struggle has constituted the most important reason not to fall in the clutches of war again, according to the equation ( the one who wants the war is not ready for , and the one who is ready for it, does not want it).
The Agreement of Al-Taif is international, regional, and internal tripartite, its title is the mono- American leadership after the end of the Cold War, the Saudi leadership of the Arab situation in the time of the progress towards the settlement of an Israeli-Arab conflict, and the internal balance on the basis of a distinguished relationship with Syria, taking into consideration the structure of the authority and the preserving of the security, awaiting for the Israeli withdrawal from the Southern of Lebanon according to the resolution 425, followed by Syrian withdrawal to Bekaa, till a comprehensive peace agreement in accordance with the reference of Madrid Conference.
The current situation based on new tripartite, America fights in vain to devote its monism which started acknowledging the presence and the magnitude of the inevitable partners. Regionally, Saudi Arabia is facing losses after losses, it is losing its leadership even in the Gulf from Yemen, and maybe it will need for someone who keeps one of the internal sects of its components, if the internal confrontations have aroused regarding the issue of Al-Sheikh Nimr. Concerning Lebanon, the international regional understanding has not succeeded in withdrawing the Israeli army, so the resistance has grown and has imposed the withdrawal, moreover it becomes a great regional player transcends the size of Lebanon, Madrid Conference has gone away accompanied with the peace, the Syrian forces have left in a circumstances where the disagreement is less than what is said, the authority has lost with the failure of the equation of Al-Taif which based on concerting the Syrian reference, the one who can re-establish it , and as a result Lebanon has faced for the second time the failure of electing a president, and once again the failure of carrying out the parliamentary elections, it is still without president, without parliamentary elections , and this will last for a long time.
In the norms and the nature of problems which AL-Taif has confronted, was the starting point, the sectarian regime is able to revive again but in a new form. This form modifies the balance within the authority between Muslims and Christians, since this was the title at that time; the internal aspect of Al-Taif agreement has modified the formula to reproduce the regime. Nowadays is the time of a compressive sectarian conflict, the Christians’ feelings of the danger of the marginalizing, and the tension between the Islamic sectarians as a result of the fire which invades the entire region in the time of extremism and terrorism, and the problematic relationship between Sunnis and Shiites, the dangers of division, fragmentation, and displacement which all the sects and doctrines experienced. The ability of constituting new Taif formula of the same regime is impossible, because the needs have changed, the multiplicity of its owners and their concerns have become different. The new formula means the failure of AL-Taif, it needs to wait for new regional international balances to produce external references, which will preserve the sectarian balances which the new formula will ensure, or to admit that the regime has overthrown and there is no survival for any formula that seeks to reestablished, we have to be shy of the thought of accepting the external immunity to protects a regime which has overthrown and waiting for the funeral announcement.
Regionally and internationally speaking, the search for new regime or a new formula for the old one, in the time of the Russian’s rising and the concerting the position of Iran, since it is the major regional country, and the advanced endeavors of Turkey to get the heritage of Saudi Arabia, moreover the strong presence of the Lebanese resistance in the region’s equation , all of these make the new formula for the revival of the regime if it is going to be a modified reproduction for the time of the reign of governors and the council of consuls.
The national rational substitute is the recognition of the overthrowing of the regime, and the serious thinking of that the Lebanese have an available alternative between their hands. It is a regime that separates ultimately between religion and country, depends on an obligatory civil system for the personal status, the sectarian institutions have only optional role like the civil system, in addition, it puts an educational system outside the domination of the authorities and the sectarian institutions, and relies on an electoral system based on the relativity, a presidential system where the president is elected by the people directly, and share the authorities with the outcome government of the polls like the French way.
The regime has overthrown and thus the formula , the attempts of reviving or modifying it will no longer benefit, and the vacancy will still until one of the two things is merged, either Lebanon is a semi-federal following the council of consuls according to the governors, or Lebanon is a civil without any doubt or exception, it means here Lebanon the layman ( secular ) and for those who are afraid of this word, we say Lebanon the civil, taking into consideration the shock that attacks the elite and the decision-makers.
2014-10-24 | عدد القراءات 1588
