Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
French security analysis of the events of the North
Written by Nasser Kandil,
One of my friends who lived in France, and who meets from one time to another one of the senior French security officers who is involved in the Middle East concerns has visited me, he has told me about his last dinner meeting on the day before yesterday and before his arrival to Lebanon, despite the abundance of the important information that I have heard from him about the situation in Syria, the French-Syrian relationships, the French outlook for the future of these relationships as the French Iranian relationships, and the attitudes of the French security and diplomatic bodies of the performance of the President Francois Hollands, what has drawn my attention is the analysis which the prominent French security official has presented about the events of the Northern of Lebanon.
The French official said, some Lebanese in the midst of the political conflicts and their effects on the events in getting attitudes out of their conflicts’ logic, have promoted analyzes which the security officers who depend on the information of what they called as( an enemy) to get their conclusions, have looked at these analyzes as jokes that raise laughter and amusement.
He stopped at the theory of the relationship of what is going on in Lebanon by the branches of Al-Qaeda organization in its old title or the new nominations, before and after the crisis in Syria and the role of Hezbollah in carrying weapons alone, due to its resistance to Israel rather than the rest of the Lebanese forces, This arming has raised an internal debate out of the internal imbalance feeling for the account of Hezbollah, and whether this arming was used in Lebanon before, so they have linked this with the situation before using the arms on May 7th 2008 .
The French security official stopped also in front of the subsequent link of this attack out of Hezbollah’s participation in the fight in Syria, and said concerning the two links; that the Lebanese should notice that the primary reason of making Lebanon on the targeted list of Al-Qaeda’s organization is the Mediterranean geographical location, and their sensitive sectarian political structure and its ability to be penetrated and affected.
Moreover, he alluded to the fact that, the most dangerous process which attacked Lebanon and which the French security has witnessed closely , has took place on the eve of the transition from the last day of 1999 to the morning of 2000, when the regional local scene did not look like the present image. The Syrian President Hafez Al-Assad was preparing for Geneva summit with the President Bill Clinton, and which was held in April 2000, Israel was testing its options in Lebanon, and preparing itself for what it has called in February 2000 as an electrical deterrence campaign in which it destroyed the generating and converting stations, and which France in return has an important role in the re-restoration and operation, towards the withdrawal of Israel in May 2000. Neither the debate upon Hezbollah’s arms, nor the Syrian presence in Lebanon was presented yet. These were launched with the Israeli withdrawal during the Archbishops Council in September, accompanied with the parliamentary elections at the end of September 2000, now everything is different, although we were talking about the period which was before the 11th of September, and the differences which appeared later, either concerning the international situation or the organization itself, or regarding the dealing of the Islamic public opinion with Al-Qaeda. Then it comes the biggest process in the records of the Islamists who follow the thoughts and the organization of Al-Qaeda because of the two concerns, the geographical localization of Lebanon and its fragile sectarian structure.
The prominent security French official said that this process in which participated nearly about two hundreds of the armed people, and which its involved people have tried to grab a closed security domination zone that spreads between the mountains of Dinnieh and a waterway on one hand, and an unclear border across the Lebanese Bekaa with the Syrian interior on the other hand, this does not related neither to the war of Iraq which did not take place yet at that time, nor to the events in Syria and what they have caused of a Lebanese split. The strategy of Al-Qaeda has an unclear line of linking Afghanistan and the Mediterranean which are stable, from the Mediterranean to the north of Lebanon towards Syria then Iraq and across Kurdistan of Iraq and Kurdistan of Iran, moving towards Afghanistan, this is the special silk line of Al-Qaeda. Building cells in the Syrian Qalamoun occupies approximately twenty years as the situation with the renewable cells in the Lebanese Dinnieh or the Lebanese Qalamoun as the map explains.
The security official added saying the performance of the Lebanese army in 2000 was amazing in its profession, rank, and its ability to end the rebellion. In more details according to Al-Qaeda’s estimates, it will turn to an armed revolution in the North, if the militants have resisted for a week, this revolution that makes use of the crisis between the era of the President Emile Lahoud and the President Rafik Al-Hariri who is outside the reign, especially in the coming hot electoral year, so this will lead to a strife. He ended saying that the essence of the war of Nahr Al-Bared is the same of the Dinnieh battlefield, and the same of what is going on nowadays.
We say, it is important to whom it may concerned of the Lebanese to pay attention to this speech, and to get out of the political involvement of promoting analyzes and explanations, which generally give terrorism excuses and mitigating reasons in order once to blame Hezbollah and once to blame the army.
The prominent French official ended saying, that he admires the dominated military instinct of the President Emile Lahoud more than his presidential location and his transition to the direct command of his troops, moreover the high nationalism of the President Al-Hariri has drawn his attention, who was aware of what is going on, so he called the President Lahoud and put himself in his command to confront the imminent danger against the army and Lebanon, despite all the temptations of the political denominational sectarian involvements and the electoral involvement in particular.
2014-10-28 | عدد القراءات 1537
