Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, and Libya:
The fall of Arab Spring… The end of the war …Viva Syria
Written by Nasser Kandil,
There are three assumptions of an interpretation of what we have witnessed during the years of the Arab Spring. Firstly, it was a local political popular uprising that does not related to the outside, secondly, it was mere an external industry that has made use of the angry popular state that has already existed, so it was not enough to be existed, so it was the time to be organized and hired it by a well-known external part so was the beep. Thirdly, it was a mixture of both, either it is a local beginning by mixing the political and the popular uprisings, therefore the outside has been alerted to it as an opportunity for a project, so it settled its attention and controlled of its direction, or it started from igniting a spark, waiting for a popular and political reaction and interaction, since it fully holds the matters, it controls and draws their limits; which means that practically either a popular revolution or a conspiracy , or a beginning of a revolution that was led by a conspiracy , or a conspiracy has exploded and made use of a revolution’s background and adopted it.
Whatever was the corrector assumption and the closer to reality in explaining what has happened, it is certain that the third assumption is the closest, nevertheless there was no doubt, and with the consensus of the accumulated facts that Syria was the ultimate goal for those who have exploded the spark of the plot for nourishing and making use of a revolutionary sate, or those who have adopted the revolution until it becomes their own. The situation which prevailed in the Arab world has affected the Syrian street on one hand, and the rapid overthrowing of the rulers has created a kind of panic and recognition that the fate of Syria is the collapse on the other hand. So the psychological warfare has affected in each direction its goals in Syria, either by mobilizing elitist popular classes to stand against the government in Syria or by raising despair and the panic within loyal classes of the government, while they saw the heads of the rulers were falling apart.
Whatever was the closest assumption for explaining what was going on, probably the assumption which combines the revolution and the conspiracy is the closest to the reality, because the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhoods as a leading power for these political changes, and which is ready to take over the rule on one hand, and the Qatari- Turkish sponsorship for leading the momentum of this rashness was not far away of a ready agreed project with the West and in its forefront America to undermine Syria on the other hand.
The Muslim Brotherhoods is the ready party for such a mission, its taking over the rule in most of the important Arab countries was certainly an enhancement of its empowerment of the chance of winning against Syria towards its collapsing. Certainly, a considerable part of the goals of this war, for which the Arab Spring was, or that it succeeded in its hiring and controlling its pace was the destroying the resistance alliance through overthrowing Syria, but the most dangerous destruction was through transforming the Arab Spring with Muslim Brotherhoods, in its religious and sectarian aspects into a sectarian strife beginning to devastate everything in front of it, through the war against Syria, and which will include Lebanon, and Iraq, and towards surrounding Iran at the end, so this will relieve Israel first and foremost, either as we saw it as an agreed deal with Turkey and its Ottoman dream, or it was mere an intersection of interests between the Arab Spring and the Israeli attacks on the same goals.
With the collapse of the Brotherhoods rule in Egypt and Tunisia, towards its violent collapse, the revolution of the Houthis in Yemen therefore was the collapse of the Brotherhood and Saudi project together, moreover, igniting Libya, and fragmenting the chances of its change into a base for the Brotherhoods’ plan, all of these made the historical chance of the Muslim Brotherhoods has fallen in taking over the control of the authority in the country which was governed by the force of the popular revolution, it will no longer stand again after it has lost it. It lost its war against Syria since the sectarian strife was a main condition of the reasons of its progress. The Arab popular angry mood of the Brotherhoods is wining absolutely for the account of Syria, whatever the attitude of the new rulers after the era of the Muslim Brotherhoods was, and the rebelling armies against the Brotherhoods have taken their strength and have awakened their will from the steadfastness and the victories of the Syrian army. The moral, human, and military abilities which the rule of the Brotherhoods has provided to continue the war against Syria have lost its reasons, and the bases of its moving. So the Brotherhoods have gathered what they have to rescue their war in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Yemen, after they had exploited the sources of these countries, and agitated their youths for the war against Syria. The strife which its conditions available with the presence of a force that has a religious feature at the head of the rule with a sectarian speech is no longer exist, while the liberal armies and elites were not bases and suitable substrates for serving this strife even if those who concerned wanted it,. So how if they are in an open challenge against the common enemy of the army and the Syrian elites, that was the Muslim Brotherhood’s project.
Either the automatic collapse of the Brotherhoods was because their poor performance and their miserable failure in expressing the will and the aspirations of the people who lived the trick of the Arab Spring, or due to an external decision from those who granted them the rule, in condition the success in overthrowing Syria, so they have restored from them when they failed, or the overthrowing was a mixture of the resentment and internal reasons with external satisfaction. It is certain that the closest choice is the third one. It means the demise of the decisive factor which the war against Syria was based upon. It is the rise of a new leading force in the Arab street and its reach to the ruling positions. Exactly, as happened in the revolutions of the fifties and sixties to announce the end of the national regimes which were opened by the armies for the account of the regimes of the political Islam, which are run by the Muslim Brotherhoods.
Today the Arab world is turning again towards the same old regimes. What is remaining of the regime of Hosni Mubarak is emerging through a revised charm image of Gamal Abdel Nasser with Abdel Fattah Al- Sisi in Egypt, and what is remaining of the regime of Zeine Al-Abeddin Ben Ali is emerging through a revised symbolic image of Al Habib Bourguiba with Abdel Fattah Al- Sisi with Baji Kayed Al-Sebsi in Tunisia , Ali Abdullah Saleh is returning to the Yemeni presence again within the front of the salvation of the situation which is brought on by the ominous spring, when the slogans of the people of Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, and Libya becomes ( God have mercy upon the days of the military). Thus the Syrians will be happy, because that they were not deceived and that they did not drink of the poisoned cup, but they say May God be with the army.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh
2014-12-24 | عدد القراءات 1797
