Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
«2014 - 2015»
The transition from war to politics -1-
Written by Nasser Kandil,
For four years, the circulated debate about Syria has surpassed the stage of the talking about the meaning of the war in, about, and against it. There is nothing remained useful in searching for the origin of who is saying that it is a revolution that turns to an external war, or it is an external war that has put the mask of the protesting manifestations to justify its processes, thus the external factor becomes the origin and the rest is details. The opposition has lost its democracy, and the claimed civilization, after it declared publicly for the West military intervention, and called for a relation with Israel, it lectured in the democratic chastity while it is in the bosoms of the Saudi and Qatari’s rulers. It talked about the peace and the civilization while the flags of Al-Qaeda are flattering above the heads of the victims. The war becomes an open one to change the geopolitical factor which is represented by Syria under the leadership of the President Bashar Al-Assad, and his choices in the most important region in the world. The possessing on Syria means linking Israel with Turkey, and weakening the resistance and separating it away from Iran, preventing China and Russia from reaching the Mediterranean Sea, and the control on gas and oil markets through the Qatari pipeline to Europe, and preventing the Iranian and the Russian markets from expansion, which means firstly and finally that the expansion of the Kingdom of (Muslim Brotherhood), which Egypt and Tunisia have become under its control entirely, Libya and Yemen partially,. In order to make the empire of the sons of Ottoman rule the Islamic world from Ankara.
The debate has become about a closer end of the war from the two opposite points of view in reading the events, one side is supporting Syria, while the other is promoting for its overthrow, each part takes into consideration in analyzing and reading the presence of critical elements for a closer end of the war, that it resolved in favor of the team which it belonged to. On the contrary there are two opposite readings that agree that the war has started and will not end; its owners belong to the both struggled sides. The expectation based on the difficulty of the decisive victory on one hand, and the weighing of a chaos scale, and that the war will become out of control, especially with the appearance of the components of Al-Qaeda and the maturity of ISIS’s project.
From the very beginning of the crisis, I have my own readings, which say that according to the importance of Syria, the war will not end before exhausting the last cartridge against its enemies on one hand, and before reaching the final limit of choosing opportunities and options, which is the end of the year 2014 the deadline of the American exit of Afghanistan on the other hand.
Washington has spent after the end of the Soviet Union two consecutive reigns of Bill Clinton, while it was absorbing what is remained of the Eastern Europe, it expanded to the borders of Russia, it surpassed the partnership with Old Europe as described by Donald Rumsfeld, who became a Minister of Defense in the reign of George Bush the Son later. Washington has supported the two reigns of George Bush himself in order to resolve its leadership on the world from Asia. It is Asia which constituted the three-quarters of the world regarding the population, the inhabited area, the natural resources, the productive capacity , the military force, and the flowing oil to the world. So were the wars which were inspired from the termination of Yugoslavia’s war in each of Iraq and Afghanistan. The goal is to prevent the communicating with Russia, China, and Iran. And the siege of each one of them by direct American force, towards imposing a book terms that resolved the American leadership for the coming century, as shown by the documents of the neo-conservatives who led that stage. And accordingly were the main results of the two wars in Syria and Iran.
The limits of the force have appeared in politics-making with the wars of America in Asia, the Israeli defeat has been crowned in the year 2006 in Lebanon, the bet on an exchange with an Iranian rule, that lead to its exit of the Palestinian issue has declined by granting it the empire features in the year 2008 with the victory of the President Ahmadi Najad once again, and the attempt of bringing out the resistance alliance from Palestine in the war of Gaza in 2008-2009 has declined. The bet of Hilary Clinton about a Palestinian – Israeli peace has failed through a cost that has borne by the two parties; it paved the way for an Israeli-Arab alliance against Iran by isolating the resistance powers. The extremism has defeated the rationalism through Israel, so the last bet was overthrowing of Syria, It has gathered all the means of victory like money, arms, alliances, illusions, dreams, taboos, adventures, gamblers, and conspiracies of the war, since they considered it the mother of the wars and the last of the wars.
The equation of the limits of power in the politics-making was the decisive factor of the American transition after the war of July in the year 2006 to a new stage that its deadline is 2014 as an appointment that has been assigned from that date for the American withdrawal from the Asian mainland to the waterways and oceans, and the deadline for the return of the military intervention is 2022. The American Joint Chiefs of Staff and the intellectual American elites in the Republican and the Democratic parties have settled these deadlines with cool minds, through which has been drafted in the message of seventeen Admirals of war at the end of 2007 to the President Bush, when he broached about the war against Iran, and what the message included of a closer announcement of the rebellion. The accurate formation has been settled in the report of Iraq, which was set up by the Congress in 2006 and its recommendations were known as Baker Hamilton report, according to its Democratic president Lee Hamilton and the Republican James Baker, that put a strategy to go out from the war to politics on a basis of the admission that the force has limits, and that the world is returning to the equations of the eighteenth century where the regional powers are the major powers in their vital dynamic range.
The facts after the message of the military groups and the issuance of the report revealed that the deadlines which were settled for the new American policy has constituted a subject of a coup that has been led by commanders, and led to the arrival of Barak Obama to the While House. Its center is six years of the smart or soft war, in which there are no taboos to achieve the control, but only to go to the direct military war once again, in condition of achieving it before 2014. While in case of failure, there must be a return to Baker Hamilton to form a new Middle East, that ensures the American interests through the engagement with the emerging powers in the world and the region, and there will be no strategic vacancy after the departure of the American armies to the Asian mainland that is filled by the opponents of Washington, especially Russia, China, and Iran which will meet in Afghanistan’s mainland after the American departure.
The war’s choice is not suitable for America; it is a matter that is settled in the year 2006, as well as the choice of chaos, division, and the civil wars which were resolved in the year 2010 at the NATO summit in Frankfurt, when it is revealed that the result will be the growth of the terrorism in the Islamic environment, and that the division will form entities that belong to Iran in the Mediterranean Coast from the borders of Palestine to the borders of Greece and on the banks of the Gulf. This will granted for Iran an empire position that controlled the security of Europe across the Mediterranean on one hand, and marketing the oil through twenty million barrels of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz, in each day will be a property of the supported states of Iran according to their sectarian identity on the other hand.
The equation becomes clear that let us spread the fire in the region, thereby all the taboos will fall without the risk of the division and the comprehensive war, and what is between. Let the Qatari dream of the leadership, the Turkish with the Sultanate, and the Saudi with the Israeli revenge by having time, and let Al-Qaeda has a role, as well as the money, intelligence, and all the vices. But eventually, either the entire Syria will overthrow under an American control, or the end of the year 2014 will approach, and it will be the time to terminate the wars, and to return to recommendation of Baker -Hamilton even gradually.
Tomorrow’s article will be about Baker –Hamilton and the return to the politics but through small wars.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-01-01 | عدد القراءات 2022
