Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
«2014 - 2015»
The transition from war to politics -2-
Written by Nasser Kandil,
If any governor in Washington has to dream of available conditions in order to go on in his victorious war, and reform the world with the strength of his army, then he will not get what George Bush the Son has got between 2000 and 2008. The competitive major powers are in a strategic isolation, and the international situation is empty waiting for the only will, through which everyone will recognize the right of the entitlement of progress. The united Europe is frightened of the American progress towards its Eastern part, and which will followed by divided areas, starting from Yugoslavian war towards the borders of Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union and its fragmentation. Russia is engaged in gathering the remnants of a country and community which lived military, political, and economical dilemma. China is involving with itself and decided to be far from politics for long decades, in order to have time for economical growth and construction, and followed America in its liking its policy by behaving unilaterally as an only ruler of the world, while the regions of Africa and Asia were competing to have the American satisfaction on their governments, and an American arbitration in their struggles , there are colorful revolutions that are wading the Russian neighborhood for the domination of governments which were closer to Washington and in accordance with its desires. The Middle East is the area of an American anxiety that is shared by a majority belonging to Washington with the money, like Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries, and the politics, population, and the armies such as Egypt, and Turkey. Israel is the capable power of going into the wars after it has relieved of the burden of putting it as an occupation force of Lebanon, Moreover, Iraq has been surrounding bleeding and towards the slow death.
In front of America there are countries that are asking to deal with decently, by take into consideration its good intentions to cooperate, and searching for the possible contributors to bridge the cap and to open a dialogue, despite the adherence of these countries with their independencies and privacy. But the ceilings of its ambitions were not far from seeking to avoid the confrontation with Washington, and replacing the clash manner with a dialogue language, this was the case of Russia and China in the light of a European search of recognition of a particular kind of participation. In the Middle East there was Iran and Syria only, they knew fully that the American storm, if it blew over the region, then it would be reckless, it will require flexibility, and it will try to build relations and reassure the concerns, in addition it will find contributors based on convincing America that it has the force and the glory, and that it is not compelled to act as a policeman or an occupier. But as a capable leader of solving the problems, and searching for interests considerations with quiet thinking, and not with the mind of cowboy. This was the content of the dialogue of the President Bashar Al-Assad with William Burns the Deputy Secretary of States in November 2002 on the eve of the war against Iraq, finishing his speech by; you will come, try, and will discover the limits of the power in politics-making, and then you will resort to the vital powers in the region, but everything would have been changed.
Regardless of the circumstances and the implications of the 11th of September’s events 2001, these bloody dramatic events have led to a global feeling of sympathy towards America and its deep wound, and a consideration of being far away, if it decided to go out with its armies to avenge for its wounded identity, while to cooperate with if America decided to consider the war against terrorism is an issue of humanity for the twenty first century. But Washington has dealt with arrogance, and decided to put the domination projects into effect. It ignored the United Nation Charter and the principle of the sovereignty of countries, it put its special customs as a criterion for the new world, of which it started preaching with Fukuyama’s theory of the end of the history, it decided invading Afghanistan and Iraq as the Yugoslavian war to resolve the conflict on Asia, and confining China, Russia, Iran, and Syria, in addition of putting the terms of the surrender.
The war has happened, and the force limits have appeared in politics-making, the confession of failure has started to be public, the retreating powers have started to be active. Only Syria has decided to be with the resistance. Iran has dealt according to the strategy of allurement, and decided to leave America sinking in the swamps of Iraq and Afghanistan and encouraging it to be involved, and leaving its allies in the two countries cooperate with the American occupation, while Syria has announced to support the resistance in Iraq and facing the American attack publicly, in addition to the refusal of the conditions which Colin Powell has carried to Damascus.
In the year 2006, it is seemed that America sank in the swamps, and turned to Europe as a partner and towards the United Nations as coverage. Its armies have stood in their place neither able to resolve the war, nor making victory or building stability. The Congress has constitutes a committee of its deputies, experts and elites of the American community under the chairmanship of the chiefs of the parliamentary blocks of the Democratic and Republic parties in order to put a strategy for going out of the swamp, and to recognize that the new law of war at the time of communications and information revolution is depending on two equations that are beyond the American’s energy. First, the ability to change the excessive power into added value before the excessive power disappeared, which means the politics and rule-making to ensure the power balances which are made by the war. Second is the ability to bear the shedding of blood as the ones which is facing, if the rapid political composition has been difficult, and the war remains unsolved, at the time of globalization with which the modern armies have changed to mercenaries that are boasting of their consumptive individual life, they perfect their profession away from any feeling, ideas, or belief in any issue. And a community that follows moment by moment what is going on, and made its reactions that transcend what an American political class has assumed after the war of Yugoslavia, that through the power of martial technological superiority, it can change the law of Clausewitz of war. The war is no longer related to the land warfare, but the wars become deducted from the above. The talk officially becomes about a war of zero looses, but the results were completely contrary, the final outcome of the war is zero.
The Congress committee has started its task under the chairmanship of James Baker and Lee Hamilton in January 2006, after it studied, analyzed, and deepened, it has reached to the conclusion that any political solution that can get the American armies out of the swamp will mean a destruction upon Washington’s allies, started consequently from Israel and ended in Qatar, and between them Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The content of the only political solution is the political engagement with the enemies, that confesses of their position and their size, so it admits of Iran as a regional nuclear superpower, it admits of Syria in a security’s role in Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan, it will go towards Russia with a spirit of partnership and equality, it will accept a solution for the Palestinian issue; the center of the conflicts in the Middle East , that depended on the Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories since 1967, and the establishment of a Palestinian country which its capital is the Eastern Jerusalem, solving the refugees’ issue according to the resolution 194. This dramatic solution will save America, but it will destroy its allies, so let America go to its allies and talk to them according to the sequence, and we are ready to do what it should be in order to go out of the impasse, but you will pay the cost, we are ready to avoid this way if you have the capable alternatives of changing the pace and regaining the initiative, the leaderships of the armies will participate in putting a calendar which its title is the withdrawal of Iraq and Afghanistan with the end of 2014 and that there will not wars till 2022.
All of the allies have presented its point of view, the American intelligence and diplomacy have conducted maturing the theory of the smart war or the soft war as a title of the stage between 2006 and 2014. The recommendations of Baker Hamilton turned to a book of conditions for presidential candidates as a strategy to get out of the swamp if the smart and soft war has failed to formulate the desired change; The first option was the Israeli war to crush Hezbollah in Lebanon and to complete the siege on Syria. Turkey and Germany have participated mainly in the plan which links the projects of oil and gas, nevertheless the failure has come once again, the options which the allies have conducted have been experimented respectively, starting from a participation to support the change in the rule in Iran in the year 2008 towards the war of Gaza and ending with the Palestinian-Israeli peace project. The results were all zero until the Turkish-Qatari option has been emerged, and what is known as the Brotherhood or the Arab Spring project. It has been given the time, opportunity and the capabilities, so the outcome was the end of 2014 without achieving the goal. Syria the central link has not been broken, but the reasons of the complications have increased exponentially more than before.
Between the years 2000 and 2014, America was no longer the same neither Israeli, nor Turkey or Saudi Arabia, because the retreating was the common characteristic between America and all of its allies, on the contrary Russia and China were not longer the same, neither Iran nor Syria or the resistance, because the progress was the common characteristic for Washington’s opponents which Baker-Hamilton has shown them as new allies, The terrorism has emerged out of the American wars as an emerging capable enemy that cannot be defeated, but only by an international ally not like the traditional American way but like the Baker-Hamilton way. The world has changed till it virtually looks like Baker –Hamilton, and the fate becomes the engagement in the settlements.
The year 2015 is the year of politics through moving from major wars accompanied by small settlements to major settlements accompanied by small wars. It was the war of resolving, breaking, and cancellation, and the settlements of neutralization, attraction and seduction. Now it is the time of partnership’s settlements, the wars of sizes, and the rates of stock in strategy, oil, markets, and politics.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-01-02 | عدد القراءات 2364
