Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
Why there is an escalation? And what do Turkey and Saudi Arabia want?
Written by Nasser Kandil,
All the observers of the region’s affairs know that there is something is being prepared with the beginning of the year, either in the related front of the war against ISIS and its two igniting warfare in Syria and Iraq or in the Gulf and its inflamed areas, especially Bahrain and Yemen. It is impossible to explain this sudden rise in all fronts by chance. The agitation and the escalation in more than one front means the presence of a transitional party for more than one front, and that is capable of adhering the negotiation papers on one hand, in addition, it means that in each front there is a decision’s ability and a coordination between the components that must be gathered to achieve the escalation on the other hand, it means as well the seeing of the potentials which the escalation need, and providing the needed cover for its strength.
The moving of the northern and the southern fronts in the region in at least four countries i.e, the legal and the security escalation against the opposition in Bahrain, the political, security, and the tribal escalation against the Houthis in Yemen, besides to the attempts of confusing the Iraqi victory against ISIS in Al- Anbar province through agitating opposite tribal groups against the government and the army’s plan, the explosion of the situation once again in Kalamoun, Daraa, and the countryside of Aleppo in Syria, and the enrolling of new financial armament potentials in these fronts, and the emergence of settlements among some components in order to let the escalation possible, while the same components are fighting in different positions and fronts. All of these mean that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are involved directly.
A Turkish-Saudi understanding of the escalation which affects Moscow’s initiative about Syria is not enough to explain what is going on in Gulf, and the gathering of Turkish or Saudi negotiated papers in the time of the Saudi-Turkish’s approaching is almost impossible, the Turkish abandonment of the Muslim Brotherhood as a project at least in Syria, means the giving up of everything, and the abandonment of Saudi Arabia of Egypt means the giving up of a lot of things which nearly everything, Thus it is a mutual Saudi – Turkish awareness of the importance of mobilizing the capacities in anticipation of the coming political maturities, and neutralizing the red lines for each team. So either the Turkish will accept a Brotherhood’s freezing in Egypt, or at least an abandonment of their support there, conversely, Saudi Arabia will accept a floatation for Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, it means Saudi handling of the south front i.e the Gulf, and a Turkish handling of the north front like Syria and Iraq.
The preparation for the political maturities which affect the region means what is bigger than Moscow’s initiative about Syria, and this will affect the new map of the roles in the region, which is the negotiation with Iran in the heart of the term which is determined by the American Secretary of State John Kerry, since the end of November in last year from Vienna and for four months, it means in the beginning of next April in order to achieve the political understanding. In other words, the American need for a Saudi Turkish cooperation and coordination that pave the way for a negotiation with Iran in a way that is closer to a partnership, after gathering the strength papers, and to prevent the Iranian isolation with each one of them through negotiation, and to make use of their contradictions, and their competition on the role of the referentialtiy.
Distributing the referentiality between the north and the south seems that it has been resolved for Turkey regarding Syria and Iraq, and has been resolved for Saudi Arabia regarding the Gulf. The north of Africa becomes an alternative of Egypt for Saudi Arabia, accompanied with the going out of Syria and Iraq after the failure, and investing the mutual capacities between Turkey and Saudi Arabia in return, in order to strengthen the negotiated situation for the two teams.The traditional question is about Lebanon in the heart of this division of roles, where the actual influence for the two teams is the Saudi influence, and the surrounded environment is the future of Syria, where the role between the two teams is for Turkey, which means leaving Lebanon to the end.
كتاب بناء2015-01-05Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-01-07 | عدد القراءات 1763
