Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
Why does The Phalange Party arrive lately?
Written by Nasser Kandil,
Since the tripartite agreement in the year 1985 The Phalange Party has arrived lately, the President Amin Gemayel was the one who preceded his two colleagues and got the leadership on the Eastern area of Beirut, the late Elie Hobeika, in addition to current commander of “ Lebanese Forces “ Samir Geagea by forming a dialogue with Syria. His position as a president, and because his leadership belongs to a strict basis by virtue of being the son of the late Phalangist leader Al Sheikh Pierre Gemayel have allowed Syria to give him the opportunities to be a godfather of the solutions. The President Gemayel who has presented many promises for the late Syrian President Hafez Al-Asasd about an initiative to meet the Lebanese reality through a political project, that is capable of terminating the war by a comprehensive settlement, was proceeding a step and retreating two steps, till the tripartite agreement has occurred. This agreement has been signed in September in 1985, by the President Nabih Berri as a leader of Amal Movement, and the Deputy Walid Jumblatt as a leader of the Socialist Progressive Party, in addition to Elie Hobeika the leader of the executive Body of the “Lebanese Forces”.
After the coup led by Geagea against Hobieka, and which led to his withdrawal from the eastern region, the President Gemayel has repeated his attempts, taking advantage of the collapse of the tripartite agreement and said that his non participation has stemmed from his consciousness of the impossibility to accept the agreement, and demonstrating it , but he remained one step forwards and two steps backwards, till Al Taif Agreement has occurred, while Samir Geagea has proceeded it by the formation of the Christian partnership in it, he threatened The President Gemayel and obliged him to leave Lebanon. After Al Taif Agreement the opportunities had continued, for example, in the year 2000 the President Gemayel has returned to the formal political work in Lebanon, and he was the first among the returners, even before the return of General Michel Aoun from Paris in the year 2005, and the return of Samir Geagea in few months from his imprisonment in Al Yarzeh, but the one step forwards and two steps backwards remained the policy of Gemayel without drawing the steps of initiative for a decisive independent role, till the position of General Michel Aoun has been cleared in an understanding with Hezbollah in the year 2006, which was opposed with a distinctive position of Geagea in the team of fourteenth of March, while Gemayel has criticized them both, and accused them of dependency charge, not the coalition, although he has occupied a small position in the team of fourteenth of March, but always complaining from marginalizing.
The presidential elections have occurred, General Aoun and Samir Geagea have been presented as presidential candidates, while Gemayel was a candidate and non-candidate, he was normal candidate without electing as his deputies and ministers were replying about the issue of his candidacy. Gemayel has betted on the impossibility of reaching both of them to the presidency and the settlements of the last quarter, so his name was presenting as a reasonable compromised solution, although he did not present any project or initiative, just a campaign of public relationships, but because he was confident of his position with Iran, Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia, France, America, and Al Mostaqbal Movement. The developments reveal that Hezbollah which turns into a major regional power as described by Jeffrey Feltman and Mikhail Bogdanov has become the regional and local partner in making the Lebanese presidency, furthermore Hezbollah said from its regional position that its role in the war against terrorism depended on the satisfaction about reliable president, who is supposed to be General Aoun. But the qualitative process of Shebaa Farms was equivalent to a war that drew the new equations, so the nomination of General Aoun was fixed, so Geaea has taken the opportunity and had his dialogue with Aoun about the presidency, like the way of the late President Fouad Chehab, and where Geagea has the position like the late Pierre Gemayel in the reign of Chehab, a role that may end where Geagea is responsible of the Phalange.
كتاب بناء 20
Gemayel and his party are more moderator than “ The Forces “ concerning the Lebanese formula, and more desirable partner in the settlements, but the hesitation of Gemayel makes him always arrive lately, so what would become the situation of the Phalange and the leadership of Gemayel, if Geagea and Aoun reached a bilateral alliance in the parliamentary elections, its title is the sharing of the whole sixty four seats of Christians, this is an achievement of a Christian dream to choose the Christians their deputies by themselves, and the order is two thirds for the reform and change bloc, one third for the “ Forces and its allies”, or two thirds led by Aoun one for the Free Patriotic Movement, one third for the allies especially Suleiman Franjieh, Tashnaq, and the independent figures, and the last one third is led by Geagea and which contains Boutros Harb and Nayla Mouwad, but doesn’t contain the family of Gemayel except for Solange, Nadeem and others in case of the full loyalty, besides to other accounts for the future of the Phalange.
Does everything is over, or can Gemayel still avert the disaster?
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-02-22 | عدد القراءات 2135
