Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
Resolving the deterrent balance in the southern of Syria
Written by Nasser Kandil,
Since the aggression of Al Quneitra, and the deterrence in Shebaa Farms, which devoted a strategic deterrent balance and constituted an equation of a full-scale war, the eyes were toward the experiences which the confrontation’ fields will witness, in order to settle or blow up what it seemed to be new engagement rules, which the resistance has put. If the basis of the new rules was, “when fighters of the resistance were targeted, then the response will not commit to a place, time, and the way”, since it was not tested except negatively, and because the deterrence is valid as long as Israel does not attack anymore, then it was a negative test, because there is no trust in its stability, where the abstention is often according to either logistic considerations, or the lack of readiness of effective succeeded processes, or to leave the new rules to erosion, as a result of Israeli bets upon variables, which it saw them possible and can working on them.
The most serious test was in the Southern front of Syria, where Israeli was trying to impose its engagement rules, that their basis are; the approaching of Hezbollah to Golan is a red line, the security belt which Israel has entrusted to Al Nosrah Front is a red line, and the Israeli air traffic and its raids over Golan is an acquired right. But when the deterrence process in Shebaa Farms has occurred, non was thinking that its repercussions were to form new engagement rules in Golan Front, because the matter was waiting for a practical test in which the results of the deterrence, and the magnitude of its consequences will be shown in the clashes upon Golan Front, and the current clash of every party to impose its equation for settling new engagement rules.
What was going for three weeks in the South of Syria such as battles, which have their magnitude, Quality and level, and which are not ignored, because they are a test on a wide range in order to show the reality of the engagement rules which control this sensitive serious Front, and which was under the rules of disengagement since 1974, till Israel has violated it, in order to put its new rules, it insisted through its raids, its fiery intervention, its sponsoring the groups of Al Nosrah Front, and through its attacks the fighters and leaders of the resistance, to raise these rules to the strategic equation level.
The Syrian army has mobilized its tanks, artilleries and infantries in a regular war method, it proceeded in a combat ranks seen by Israel, it has attacked the sites of Al Nosrah Front and progressed, moreover, it caused their collapse one by one, while Israel did not dare to move. “ Jerusalem Post “ has published appeals for the militants’ leaders, and their demands to the leaders of Israel that everything will collapse unless you interfere, but they did not interfere, they just responded that they could not do anything, so the first new equation of the engagement rules has been settled, its content was that the war with Al Nosrah Front is a Syrian sovereign concern, as long as it is going on in the Syrian territories, and any Israeli intervention in it has not any red lines, which means the slipping into the war. So Israel has to decide whether if it really wants the war and bears its consequences, because it will be a war that transcends the Syrian Front, it will be a full-scale war with the resistance alliance.
Hezbollah accompanied with groups of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and units of the Syrian army have proceeded while they were lifting deliberately their flags and their special badgets to show the new equation in drawing the new engagement rules, and that the presence of the resistance with the Syrian country is a legitimate matter, that is not subjected to the Israeli threats, which are not allowed to put red lines, and that the Iranian Syrian military agreements, and the consequences of the cooperation between the two armies, and the militants troops is a Syrian sovereign matter that Israel has not the right to interfere in. In both cases, Israel has to admit of the new rules, which their violation constitutes a danger of approaching the comprehensive war.
Yesterday, the Syrian military aircraft has stroked with its first raids the last points in the covered geography within the legal criteria of permitted flight, for the first time it has raided sites of A l Nosrah Front, where the Israeli radars have alarmed that there is a Syrian military flight in the Syrian airspace along the separated line, so the political and military leaders in Tel Aviv have been asked while the missiles of the Iron Dome are alert, the orders have been launched to ignore them. In meantime the Syrian aviation has carried out strong effective raids, it has repeatedly raided, while the Israeli radars are recorded, and the Iron Dome asked to react and launch its missiles, getting the response of neglecting. Then after the end of the raids, the Israeli aviation has appeared in the atmosphere of the buffer zone , and returned back.
Just observing what is going on in the South of Syria, will determine the new engagement rules, because the Israeli leadership is hesitant and confused, and it may break some of these rules, but it is certain that the decision of the resistance alliance is to pay the necessary cost to prove them.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-02-24 | عدد القراءات 1931
