Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S   

Will Kerry turn the tables on Iran from Yemen?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The escalatory statements of the American Secretary of State John Kerry about Yemen, and the accusation of Iran of bearing the responsibility of escalation, have entered the happiness to the grieving hearts in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel. Many have preferred desires rather than realities; they have considered the statement a sign of failure of the meeting which included Kerry and the Iranian Minister of foreign affairs Mohammed Jawad Zarif, even some have reached to the prediction of the countdown path of the collapse of the Iranian- American negotiations, where the equation is that Iran has exaggerated in estimating the extent of the American wisdom and patience upon its riot, and has made use of the dialogue language, till it considered it a weakness, so it revels in the region, so Washington became impatient, as one of the oily media has written. And that it the time of change, expecting that Iran will hear and see what is different from what it has seen and heard during many months ago.

In a attempt to understand what is going on, it is necessary to present the following simple equation; whatever was the American coquetry to Saudi Arabia and the countries of Gulf, the position of Israel remains firstly approved by all, and whatever was the harm that affects Saudi Arabia of what is going on in Yemen, it does not affect directly the Saudi security, and it is not compared in both cases with what will harm Israel, especially when it is a direct harm of  its security  as has happened through the resistance’ s process in Shebaa Farms, and the message which is revealed at the level of changing the engagement rules. This change seems to be approved and verified according to any observation regarding what is going in the South of Syria. In contrast , whatever was the magnitude of the relationship of Yemeni Al Houthi Movement with Iran, it remains a relationship that does not raise to the level of Iran’s relationship with Hezbollah, and whatever was the interpretation of the role of this Iranian relationship with Houthis in making their attitudes , and what Kerry has called as a collapsing of the authority in Yemen, the Iranian relationship which encouraged the resistance to carry out the process of Shebaa Farms and its deterrent function, or the seismic process as the Iranian leaders have described it, is public and proven . Normally, when Washington decides that Iran is investing the negotiations to break the ruling balances in the Middle East, then the first thing that comes along, is the affected Israeli deterrent balance, and which is marginalized by the public supported resistance power especially by Iran. It is sure that the negotiation with Iran is in process, and the thinking makes it in a parallel position with the region’s balances, this makes the Israeli security surpassing the Gulf one, and the position of Hezbollah precedes Al Houthi Movement,. Moreover the income of the linking with the security of Israel is much more profitable than the linking with Yemen. So what has happened when the processes of Al Quneitra and Shebaa Farms have occurred is simply that Tehran at its different levels of leadership said that Israel has violated red lines, and it has to pay the cost, and that the resistance will react badly as a result of its deeds, thus there will be a seismic response in the way. When the process of Shebaa Farms has occurred, Washington has accelerated to say that that the process is painful but it does not call for war, so it is enough to just imagine the exchange of attitudes and positions, if Iran says after the raid of Al Quneitra that, this process is painful but does not worth a war, and that the Americans say after Shebaa Farms that Hezbollah has surpassed the red lines and has to pay the cost.

The next question is what will be the consequences of Kerry’s speech about the Iranian responsibility of what is going on in Yemen, the call for a military campaign to discipline Iran, or a campaign of sanctions, or a call for forming a military alliance to re-impose the authority of Mansour Hadi by force. Everyone knows that the resorting to the Security Council concerning Iran will collide with a Russian Chinese Veto, because it connected with the ruling balances in the world not just in the region. It is a veto that its presence has been proven in the Syrian crisis repeatedly, so what about Iran, but if the reaction was beyond the Security Council, then the question will be if these determination and ability are available in Washington, so is it better, easier,  more important and vital, and an ability to mobilize and expand the allies to use these determination and ability in the case of Syria where Turkey is ready, or in the case of Hezbollah where Israel wishes ?

It is clear that everyone has a sight and an insight, Kerry’s speech is not mere a way to draw attention, this could be done in his ballpark meeting with Zarif, but it seems that it is an outcome of this meeting and a beginning to prepare the equation, its basis is that it is necessary to negotiate with Iran to ensure the stability in Yemen, after the American advices have pushed Saudi Arabia to accelerate the negotiation with Iran about the issues of the region, Today, Kerry says implicitly as long as you prevent the ways to have a dialogue with Iran, so do not wait for the solutions from the sky, furthermore soon we will listen to Kerry says that the Yemeni crisis is a threat to the American national security, because of the spread of Al-Qaeda, so this calls for an international regional conference to resolve the Yemeni crisis, we see the Sultanate of Oman is ready to host this conference, which Washington said that it is necessary to include Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the conflicting parties of Yemen.

Are they stupid, naïve, or in a hurry? …. Or do their desires precede their minds?… it does not matter, because Kerry will be happy if Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and especially Israel will suggest that the matters are going in an opposite of what they are actually between Washington and Tehran, the days which Kerry wants will pass and so Zarif, till they will meet in the middle of a regional way, that will announce the starting point for the negotiation. Is not Netanyahu’s visit to Washington after few days a worth issue?

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

2015-02-27 | عدد القراءات 2367