Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
The Saudi Turkish bet on Netanyahu
Written by Nasser Kandil,
Since the serious negotiating American involvement under the ceiling of achieving an agreement about the nuclear program, and after the collapse of the bet on the military intervention in Syria, and the emergence of an understanding about the Syrian chemical weapons, it was clear that the continuous attraction in the region violently was not an open war, because the open war needs the presence of the military option on the table, but it was not like that since the meeting of Kerry Lavrov at the beginning of May in 2013. Hence, whatever we have witnessed from Ukraine to Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and the emergence of ISIS, in addition to the Israel intervention’s project in Golan Front in a way to draw red lines and new engagement rules, all of these constituted a theatre of drawing balances and equations, which will determine the sizes and roles in the coming settlements, and not a path of determining the direction between the choice of war or the choice of settlement.
The disparity in approaching the theater by Washington and its allies was clear, and it becomes clearer whenever new equations are drawn in the fields of tests and confrontation. Washington is trying to achieve three goals together, employing any progress in the balances against Russia and Iran and their allies, as new negotiating issues, putting every retreat concerning its allies in their balance as loses that affect them not it, and creating the background which participates in adapting a negotiating reality regarding the American public opinion and the allies.
Two levels of allies in receiving the American negotiating politics have been developed, the European level, in which Europe was comfortable with Washington and has been prepared for the understandings even reluctantly especially with respect to France and Britain, and a regional level its axis is Turkey and Saudi Arabia and headed by Israel, this level has tried to change the equations not in order to improve a negotiating situation, but to wager on creating realities, which make the negotiating option absurd and give the hope to go on in the confrontation option. In most cases, the credentials are presenting to the American under the slogan of “ We are able, so why do you surrender?” and often when the matters are up to the crucial moment, it seemed that they want America to fight on their behalf, while it is unable.
2014 is approaching its end; Washington is packing its bags from Afghanistan, and sees how Russia, China, and Afghanistan are connecting overland by the Afghan geography. But it is important to make prior great understandings with the parties of the Asian Triangle; the Russia, Chinese, and the Iranian, and to use all the papers before the end of the year in the negotiation’s balance in order to draw its new equations, Yemen irks Saudi Arabia, Syria disturbs Turkey, while Hezbollah is the dilemma for Israel, the Ukrainian war is going subsequently towards arming and funding Kiev Army in order to put a pressure on the Russian security on one hand, and the war of oil prices which consumed the Saudi oily and financial reserves on the other hand, hoping that Russia is going to be exhausted before the end of the year, but on the contrary Russia has bet on the depletion of the American time, it won, while America has bet on the depletion of the Russian fuel and it lost. The Ukrainian settlement has been settled but according to the Russian terms, moreover, the process of understanding with Iran has been cleared as an option in which Tehran is feeling proud.
Israel has failed in the adventure of settling new rules of the engagement with Hezbollah. While Hezbollah has succeeded in changing the rules of engagement preparing for a military campaign which the southern of Syria has witnessed, to blow the security belt which Israel has dreamt of and planned for, it changed its capacities to be like an insurance policy when the settlements have approved. But it neither succeeded in disabling the understandings, nor maintained the insurance policy, so Turkey has sought to impose an new reality in Syria through the Northern front, while it sees the deterrent rules are controlling the Southern front, so it hesitated and chose a humble title, it is called the remains of Suleiman Shah, in a territory that is dominated by the units of ISIS, it could enter and go out within hours with 500 hundred soldiers, without having the resolution of direct intervention in order to change the equations of war in Aleppo. In Yemen Saudi Arabia has drew attention to the presence of Mansour Hadi in Aden, and has made it a title of a diplomatic and political attracting, hoping to create a new Yemeni reality. But the result is that the only military force which can be mobilized to fight Al Houtis is the organization of Al Qaeda.
Washington has made the agreement with Iran, while the last remained cartouche is the visit of the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to incite the American Congress against the president, who was accused by Netanyahu that he has abandoned the security of Israel and its presence, Hope according to Netanyahu is by stirring the Jews, the lobbies, and the members of the Congress, after Saudi Arabia had provided it with all the needed financial support to activate the lobbies, spreading the advertisements, and arranging accompanied media campaign. But the results were all negative, so Netanyahu has failed and has arrived to the extent of the fear of boycotting of more than half of the Congress’ members of his speech.
Washington knows that its allies do not have the ability to change anything; it knows that in its coming war, the war against terrorism they will be just negative spectators without sincerity; and in better conditions as Turkey according to the speech of the US Intelligence Chief. Or they are implicit allies for ISIS as the Turks, or allies for Al Nosrah as Israel, or both of them as Qatar, or an incubator environment as Saudi Arabia.
The game has finished from where the end should start, in drawing the end of the Ukrainian war, where the last war ends firstly, and vice versa. The American Russian relationship becomes clear, while the American Iranian relationship is on its process. The path is appearing in the region respectively. Netanyahu speaks in vain likewise; the Saudi and the Turks which are waiting for him in vain too.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-03-04 | عدد القراءات 2505
