Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S   

Tikrit is the capital of ISIS not Al Mosul

Written by Nasser Kandil,

There were four years of fighting against Syria in which Al Qaeda militias, the intelligence of Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, France, Britain, Israel, and America have participated, and for which nearly hundred billion dollars have been spent according to the reports of the American press, but none of the central cities of Syria have been collapsed except Al Raqqa, maybe because  of its political, economical, and popular sequential magnitude, and its position among the central cities of Syria is certainly the farthest from the fifth one.

By observing the geography of Syria one can notice that if Homs and Hama had been collapsed by the militant groups, then the collapse of Damascus, Aleppo, and Lattakia would have been equivalent, not out of the importance and the centrality of each one of these cities, but the reason is that Homs and Hama are intermeddling the Syrian geography, they constitute the far center of the borders with the neighboring countries; Any borders with any countries, means that the countries remain safely if its center and the cities of the center are under the control of the government, then it is possible to bet on reclaiming the neighboring cities. In Syria the neighboring cities are Aleppo and Daraa, before Deir Al Zour and Hasakah and despite the penetration of the militant groups into them, they are still confronting arenas and the government is retaking the lead.

The Emirate of ISIS has not emerged except only for one year, the one who is looking at the geography of Iraq will see the dominance of ISIS in its center and the North West of it, and will discover that Al Mosul is the capital of the emirate nominally, just for two reasons, first because it ensures the connection with Turkey only. Second, as regards to the popular meaning, social and sectarian composition and the geographic location, Tikrit is the central city among the cities of the emirate, furthermore the entrance of the governmental and the popular forces to it means that the emirate is crumbling. Tikrit is breaking the links among Al Anbar, Baghdad, Diyala, Al Mosul, Kirkuk, and Erbil. With the completion of liberating Tikrit, ISIS will be distributed on beleaguered military areas that are threatened to be collapsed by the factor of time only.

Liberating Tikrit with the partnership of the armed forces of the tribes’ volunteers, without Saudi guardianship or American mantle means the termination of ISIS in accordance with what Al Sayyed Hasan Nasrollah has said; that it neither needs the support of the Americans, nor the support of their allies, but the termination will be easier and faster without the American intervention, not only to prevent the American dual exploitation of ISIS, or the desire to prolong the presence of the emirate in order to make use of the war in depleting Syria and Iraq, and the timing of the decisive battle according to the American elections, but also because the Americans are aspiring that the decisive war will take into consideration preventing the entrance of ISIS neither to Saudi Arabia nor to  Jordan, and the controlling of the immerging to Turkey in order to ensure that the fighters of the West will not return back to their countries. All of these aim to prolong the bleeding of the region’s people and their armed forces.

After Tikrit, the battles of Al Anbar and Deir Al Zour will take place, through the coordination between the Syrian and the Iraqi armies, and the tribes of the Syrian and Iraqi provinces which belong to the same origins, and where America is prevented to participate, Then they are followed by Al Mosul and Al Hasakah, in addition to the immigration of ISIS’s fighters from Al Raqqa to Turkey, while Al Nosrah will immigrate to Jordan in the South, and to Turkey in the North.

Lebanon has to hasten in its war and its coordination with Syria, in order not to be confused about the fighters who are settled in its barren areas, and who are thinking of penetrating and infiltrating into the interior of Lebanon when the signs of defeat about their project, and the collapsing of the two emirates become clearer to them.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

2015-03-12 | عدد القراءات 1994