Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
The aerial bombardment between ISIS and Al Houthis
Written by Nasser Kandil,
Each one of America, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Turkey has announced its central enemy in the region, and has determined the party which it wants to arrange the situations with, to gather the capacities in its war; because the enemy is what it classified as terrorism.
America has classified ISIS as a terrorism, it decided to gather the capacities in the war against the emirate of ISIS, at the same time it tried to have a reconciliation with Iran, it accepted the solution’s terms in Syria, and it encouraged the understanding in Lebanon to ensure a wider mobilizing against ISIS, even without a direct coalition with those who are fighting and will fight in a better way against it.
Israel has announced Hezbollah a terrorism, it decided to mobilize the capacities for a war that it cannot go into directly, so it has chosen Al-Nosrah Front as a trusted liable ally for this mission, both of them share the common war, even if the conditions which Israel can bear after the process of Shebaa Farms have changed.
Turkey has announced the Syrian country, its president, and its army a pivotal central enemy, it has decided to mobilize in order to deplete them, so it has chosen ISIS as its ally for this mission, moreover it has presented to ISIS all the facilities which ensure such a role, despite the anger of the allies towards America and the other parties of the Atlantic Alliance.
Saudi Arabia has announced Al Houthis its central enemy, it has constituted an alliance to fight them, and moreover it has compared its war with the wars of the others. Turkey is not suitable for this comparison, because the resistance’s ability of the Syrian country against ISIS and Al Nosrah together, in addition to the alliance of the “Friends of Syria “ is far from the time which ISIS has been taken to turn into a danger on the West, and the starting of the American war against it, towards the announcement of Washington the inevitable negotiation with the President Bashar Al-Assad. Israel has failed in its bet on Al Nosrah Front, because the process of Shebaa Farms has proved the inability of Israel to face Hezbollah in a ground war. America fights ISIS, and it says through its spokesman the Chief of the Staff General Martin Dempsey that the aerial raids are not enough without a ground war to achieve victory.
As a simple comparison between Saudi raids and the raids of the alliance which is led by Washington against ISIS, and between the ability of ISIS to withstand and the ability of Al Houthis as numbers, steadfastness, and a home case, Saudi knows that what is effective in the case of America with ISIS is more effective with the case of Saudi Arabia with Al Houthis.
The bet of Saudi Arabia on the ground war which the Yemeni forces that are against Al Houthis will wade, is not less in its absurdity and craziness than the bet of the Americans on as they called “the Syrian moderate opposition “to wade this war.
The Americans avoid the involvement into the ground war, so they resort to the engagement indirectly with those who can fight ISIS overland, from Iran, to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. So how will Saudi Arabia avoid the engagement on the ground?
Saudi Arabia will repeat the Israeli experience of the war of July in the year 2006 by the illusion of the victory, which can be achieved from the air only, but when the supposed time has passed for the triumph by air, it has been forced to get involved by the ground war, and the defeat has started. But within few days Saudi Arabia will find that it has committed a fatal mistake. The war has failed from the air. Saudi Arabia is neither confident that the war will not affect it, nor confident that its alliance will remain stable, nor have a strategy to go out of it.
It is necessary to appeal a help from a friend, maybe it is Masqat which the Saudis were angry from, because it does not want to get involved in the war.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-03-28 | عدد القراءات 1967
