Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S   

Similar to the War of July

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Saudi Arabia has announced the war against Yemen as Israel had announced the war against Hezbollah in July 2006. Saudi Arabia has linked the future of its magnitude, its role, and the deterrent ability which it entrenched behind, with the non going to any war in a parallel situation of the future of this war, exactly as Israel has put the future of its deterrent ability and the future of its effectiveness for lunching wars in a parallel scale of the war of July.

Saudi Arabia thinks as Israel has thought that the victory in this war will promote its stature in the alliance which is led by Washington, because through its triumph it will train a severe blow against Iran and its allies , and will show that it can put an end for the Iranian ascending, in addition that the way to negotiation, granting abdication, and the admission of the regional magnitude of Iran is not the better way to avoid the losses, exactly as Israel has wanted from the War of July.

In the two wars Saudi Arabia and Israel were granted allies who represented a regional and an international basis, which prevented the claiming of linking the failure if it occurs with the weakness of the regional and international support, in return of a limited political, emotional, and media support that the opponent which they have announced their war against will get. It seemed that the victory in this war is apparently resolved for the Saudi favor, as it was in the war of July; it seemed resolved in favor of Israel.

It seemed that the weakness’ point of Al Houthis and those who are supporting is the same; the bet on the aerial war to achieve victory, and the high fear of involving in a ground war, as well as the attempt to postpone it and then avoid it, but the problem is that the opponent has a resilience’s ability that can absorb the aerial strikes and coexist with them for a long time, but they will lose their values and fade, and start turning into a burden upon its owner, whose the confusion makes him commit mistakes and massacres against the civilians. The claiming of the necessity for waiting will last for a long time before getting involved in the ground war, in return the opponent which is under the attack  is tested by Saudi Arabia as the opponent which was tested by Israel in the War of July by its high efficiency in the ground war and ensuring the victory.

When the ground war starts, the consequences are considered for each one of the two teams, each one of them starts gathering the points, but the problem of the Saudis is that the area which they have to choose for the ground war is Saada; the stronghold of Al Houthis along the borders with Saudi Arabia as the South of Lebanon which is a stronghold for Hezbollah according to Israel. The Saudis will discover as the Israelis had discovered that the equations are starting here by the coup against them, and that their war is going to be hindered, and then the surprising equation of beyond beyond Haifa will emerge, moreover the continuation in the war will become a realized loss, and what is needed then is a life rope, or as they called it an exit strategy, the only way for exit is the negotiation upon ceasing fire, and a resolution form the International Security Council, which will be through arranging elections under the supervision of the United Nations, and where Al Houthis will be culminated as leaders for Bab Al Mandeb, which is frequently mentioned these days as the Shebaa Farms which its name was memorized by all the leaders of the world.

The Saudis opportunity was as the Israelis’ one, in the night of the first blow, was to succeed in targeting a fatal blow against the opponent by their intelligence information, they have aimed that this blow will affect its headquarters, kill its leaders, destroy its capacities, and agitate supporters from the interior who can turn the table in the back lines of the opponent, but this has not happened in the War of July, because Hezbollah has succeeded in absorbing the first blow, and the countdown of the war has started. While according to Saudi Arabia the time which it could achieve the success of its aerial war has passed, but the countdown started.

Israel is supporting Saudi Arabia in order to win in its war, and it says “demolish their bones because they want to fight us, exactly as the Saudis did, when Tzipi Livni has quoted the same sentence about the Saudis in the war of July.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

2015-03-29 | عدد القراءات 1882