Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S   

Observe the movement of Erdogan

Written by Nasser Kandil,

There is an international regional consensus upon considering the interval which precedes signing the final agreement between Iran and the countries of the West headed by America is the last available opportunity to adjust the attitudes of Washington’s allies who are angry with this agreement whether like Turkey, Israel, or Saudi Arabia. Just for that, Turkey has supported Al Nosrah front to enter Idlib in the Northern of Syria in this proactive timing of the agreement, and for that also Saudi Arabia has waged its war against Yemen at the same time, and for this reason the Israeli cries of war arise too.

The simpler probability is that all of what the Saudis, Turks, and the Israelis are betting on is worthless and its fate is the failure and the bankruptcy. Thus Saudi Arabia will be obliged to admit of the failure of its war, and its inability to launch an internal Yemeni dynamism that destabilizes the dominance of Al Houthis and creates balances of new powers , moreover it will appeal through the available to reach the gate of the settlement s, whether through the American gate with Iran, or through the Pakistani gate, Furthermore, Israel will discover its inability to translate its threats and changing the words of war into actions, so it will be satisfied with its new size and the threats of its exposing for more corrosion and collapse, while Turkey is seeing the progress of the Syrian army trying to regain idlib, and it is unable to think of dilemma of a comprehensive war which it avoided for four years.

The worst probability is that Washington is standing behind the equation of wars which its allies are taking over between the two agreements the initial and the final one, so it assures the arousing of the balances, testing the powers before the final signature, and seeing its effects in it on one hand, and making quick regional settlements, since it does it usually on the other hand, where neither Saudi Arabia nor Israel can wage the settlements from a defeated site. In addition that America cannot leave them unstable among the changing balances that are against them successively and quickly, and without a bill of insurance that is provided by the settlements. What is more important is that the tests of power, abilities and the American interests should be implemented outside the range of targeting from Iran and the forces of resistance, and this is what the understanding is supposed to achieve in the process of the solution with Iran.

Between the two probabilities there is a third hypothesis; that the angry allies of Washington resort to an attempt to blow up the final understanding through creating war’s fronts between them and Iran, and thus affecting the commitment of America to protect them from any external threat, and this might be a Saudi reason for a war where there is no Yemeni ground involvement, but an attempt to provoke Iran, and that ends with a settlement and powers ‘ balances, it may also be an Israeli reason for a similar movement towards Iran or Syria according to the same consideration, the goal is  to arise the balances, to test the balances, and serving the negotiations, but the most important thing is that this arising paves the way for the settlements under the sponsorship of Washington as the experiences have shown.

What is giving one of these probabilities the chance to emerge and be a serious is how Erdogan will behave, especially towards Idlib and the start of the Syrian attack to regain it. The army and the Turkish intelligence will know before many, the estimation of the American attitude towards the Saudi and the Israeli armies and what s going on around and in it,  and through this knowledge Turkey will set on the lines of its movement between the eruption  towards Iran to ensure a place in the settlement, or to escalate in Syria to reserve a fiery place and link the fate of the Turkish role with the consequences of the wars which are waged by the allies.

Who observes Recep Erdogan knows that his movement will constitute a barometer of the settlement and the wars in the region.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

2015-04-15 | عدد القراءات 1735