Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
What did Saudi Arabia win from the adventure?
Written by Nasser Kandil,
The Saudi elites who are following up the general affairs, and who are enlisted to wade a media war defending on the resolution of the war against Yemen have to stop and think even a little bit while they are now in the midst of the third week of war about the consequences which they have achieved away from the obstinacy. The same when the Saudi Ambassador in Washington Adel Al-Jubeir has expressed with a transcendence regarding the facts, like the way of the spokesman of the American troops in Iraq before the admission of failure, that the campaign has achieved its goals.
The abstention and the evaluation are something that done by the countries and the armies in the center of the major events, which are not continued as they are drawn, but their plans are amended tens of times according to variables as Al-Jubeir has said. The failed wars are the only ones which continue according to the decided plans, and the losing wars alone are supposed in the twenty first century as a decisive victory, because the upper limit which the wars produce is imposing the negotiated position, then enhancing this position towards the openness to every attempt that paves the way for the political solution and consequently for spending the accumulated balance of the war if it was positive, and an attempt to decrease the loses if the balance of war was negative.
The Saudi elites who are closer to the decision makers are supposed to wonder during the first serious war that they are wading with their army; Did it embroil in a war where there is no horizon for a decisive victory in it or not ? Did the withdrawal of Pakistan and Turkey after their participation constitute a sign that there is something farer that facilities their implication and waiting the coming days for Saudi Arabia to ask for an exit strategy of its war? If America actually was with Saudi Arabia in this war, will Pakistan withdraw?, and will the Turkish President who has mentioned his canceling of his visit to Iran go and cancel the cancellation, and announce from Tehran the attempt of finding a political solution for the Yemeni crisis with a cooperation of Iran?
The Saudi elites are supposed to wonder; Does obtaining a resolution from the International Security Council according to the Chapter VII constitute a shift in the Saudi war process, and what will it add to a war that has not succeeded in its third week more than what is achieved in its first day? Is it the reserving of a negotiated seat that was already reserved for the Saudi, and which its negotiated papers are decreasing with every additional day in the war as long as there is not any ability to invade Yemen, and which if it is available, then it’s not better than the invasion of Iraq, so what will the resolution achieve rather than putting Saudi Arabia in a position that cannot bear any apology for the failure, and enhancing of the position of the predicament?
Within the range where Saudi Arabia is moving, it is supposed that there someone who says that the Iranian announcement of the titles for a political solution is a positive point amid the entanglement, Iran which has avoided the engagement in the war with Saudi Arabia and succeeded to win the understanding regarding its nuclear program with the Western countries, can just satisfied with the gloating about the Saudi situation, and applauds for the entanglement and contributes in deepening it, Therefore the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs can say instead of announcing the readiness to participate in a political solution for the Yemeni crisis that “ the future of Saudi Arabia is at stake, and its impossible triumph in Yemen is drawing legal wonders about the future of the stability in the Gulf within the mystery of the fate of the throne and the ruling family” therefore, this will ignite the enthusiasm for more of Saudi involvement in the war. But the quiet rational Iranian speech seems alone an attitude that is caring for having a lifeline, surely because the alternative of the Saudi partnership in managing the Gulf affairs is a violent chaos, through which Iran will have small gains here and there, but the loses will be bigger with the collapse of the regional stability, and the openness of the future of the country which has the most important oil wealth in the world that produces ten million barrels daily to the unknown.
Pakistan, Turkey, and Iran are three major Islamic countries that meet under the title of searching for a political solution for the Yemeni crisis, while Saudi Arabia is searching for whom applauds for its war, so the Westerner merchants of weapons will clap and will check their passbooks, moreover the distributors of sectarianism and the civil war as well as the advocates of chaos and division will clap too. Thus the question becomes if the Saudis want a consolation prize for their getting out of the war, which its title is giving them Yemen and the surrender of Al Houthis, then from now they have to invade Yemen by ground, and occupying it by force, as in the case in Syria, they are like Turkey and Israel without the entry to Damascus and Sanaa, so it will be attrition wars, that they can funding, arming, and finding mercenaries, crazy and stupid people to wade these wars, but they will not have a dream of achieving the victory in them.
The question is when the cost is the stability of Saudi Arabia itself and the security of Israel itself, why the Turkish option is staying away, and why it is difficult for Saudi Arabia to be opened to the stage after the final understanding of the West with Iran, which seems that it is inevitable, instead of getting the complete loss if the complete profit is impossible, why should the situation in Saudi Arabia will be as the situation of Israel?
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-04-18 | عدد القراءات 1973
