Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
Did Russia and Iran commit a mistake by depending on tempting Turkey?
Written by Nasser Kandil,
The emergence of the alliance which supports Syria during the past four years, and while it gains profits and achieves victories, from Russia which becomes able to talk about regaining its position after the war of Ukraine, and as a country that has importance, and a partner that its partnership cannot be ignored in the international issues which the Russians would not hesitate to disable in any way if the others especially America does not take the Russian attitude into consideration. All of these prove that standing with Syria was not a source of loss and the bet on its resilience and stability was not an adventure. Iran may be the same or more, through its success in achieving the final stages of the nuclear understanding that has postponed from a long time, as a result of the West’s bet to discourage it of its constants. The war against Syria was the fiercest and the last fateful bloody attempts against the region as a whole. Now Iran has imposed its treatment from its victory for Syria and the steadfastness of Syria, so it ends the difficult stages of its victory and now the whole world deals with it as a superpower not only in the region, but as an ascending power at the international level under the title of the anticipated effectiveness for itself and for its allies in the war against terrorism.
The supports of Russia and Iran to Syria have their important impacts in enhancing Syria’s steadfastness and providing the elements of its resilience. The Russian weapons in all their modern arsenal have been put under the control of the Syrian army, and when the American fleets have arrived to the Mediterranean Sea, Russia has alerted the operational rooms and has put its troops at the highest alert level, the message of dropping the tested American rockets was enough to clarify the image and the attitude, moreover, the repetitive veto was a legal diplomatic tool to protect Syria, as much as igniting the war of Ukraine was a pressure tool to dissuade Russia of its ambitions of behaving as a competitive superpower to America in the international background, it also was an outcome for its stable attitude towards Syria and an attempt to punish it for this support, so Russia has fixed its position and it neither retreated of its national interests nor abandoned of its support to Syria or exposed it to bargain. Furthermore, Iran has waged the Syrian war with money, weapons, and men like a partner that does not ask about costs and sacrifices, it knows that the victory of Syria is a victory for it and the defeat is the defeat of the whole alliance, as Russia recognizes the position of Syria in the political geography of the world as Iran more recognizes its position in the region and in the Arab-Israeli conflict, and as Russia has not stinted, Iran was more generous , it did not concern about money, weapons, or men , when the negotiation was about its nuclear program according to its principles and consonants, it knows that what is going on is out of the force of steadfastness of Syria, but at the same time, it protects Syria and it was a faithful ally that did not give up of its ally and did not expose its interests to threat, but it puts red lines in any negotiation it’s title is attracting the others to its attitude towards Syria. Here is America is admitting that the President Bashar Al-Assad whose overthrow was the main American goal of the war, his presence becomes concessions as a result of his stability, his representative position for his people and the unity of his army, as well as a result of the force of refusal of his Russian and Iranian allies for any presented bargains.
In Iraq there is a similar situation, the confrontation with ISIS is taking its place as it is the natural partnership war with Iraq and Syria against terrorism, but by the force of the progression of the resistance which is based on the steadfastness of Syria in the most violent and fiercest war, which even if its owners have succeeded in destabilizing Syria but everything will change. It seems that Iraq despite the difficulty it is progressing towards its victory against ISIS , for example what is happening in Al –Anbar like threats is not equivalent with what has happened in Takrit of victories. In Yemen the rebels of Al Houthis have succeeded in the resilience and breaking the Saudi arrogance, and failing its criminal war through their steadfastness, sacrifices, and surviving. But on the basis of that Saudi Arabia represents an alliance that loses and defeats in Syria and in the Iranian nuclear program, while Al Houthis represent an alliance that win in both cases, it is not a subject for debate of what has happened to Yemen if Saudi Arabia and the war alliance against Syria have succeeded. While the third and the most important ally is Hezbollah, which was preceding in discovering the nature of the war against Syria, shedding blood without return, and putting its moral aspect and the position of the leader of the resistance and his credibility on stake without hesitation in order to achieve the victory in a war that is described by him as the war of fate, and the future and the presence of the resistance. The contributions of Hezbollah were more than the others, because it contributed with blood in making the steadfastness, moreover it was a partner in achieving the stage of the absence of the main risks for the war’s future, also by the force of war against Syria, in addition to the steadfastness and the stability, therefore Hezbollah has reached the regional rank, it is a merit that it has been got by its sacrifices, and an honor position that was obtained by its men and leader, so by the force of this war was the opportunity for making new deterrent equation with Israel through the exceptional qualitative process in Shebaa Farms by the force of the partnership with Syria.
With the approaching of the regional settlements which are written by blood, a duality between Russia and Iran is drawn at one time, its basis is the bad and the hatred of the Saudi performance towards both of them; the war of oil price, the security tamper with Russia and the arrogance and the abuses towards Iran, so there was a need for a regional partner of Washington’s allies with which the settlements and the understandings are agreed upon as a partner in the new regional system, so because Turkey was an alternative to the Saudi role, it presented a project that achieved the desired, Turkey was not a party in Yemen but it can be a facilitating element for the local solutions in the Lebanese issues such as the kidnapped soldiers, while it is in Iraq a support that can be neutralized from the war with ISIS since it is the shelter and the supply line, therefore the changing of Turkey’s position in this war, will change the war’s calendar and its consequences, Turkey is a direct neighbor and a commercial marine port for both of Russia and Iran. After the acceptance of Egypt of standing with Saudi Arabia, and its abandonment of its regional natural rank, the equation becomes with the continuation of the Saudi orgy and arrogance and the Turkish hypocrisy and deceit, facilitating the opportunities and temptations with Turkey to change its position towards the settlements, and making Saudi Arabia pay the wars’ prices, even if the settlements with it becomes a fate at the end, but it will be as an inevitable fact but in lowest costs and roles.
Syria alone seems to be a loser within the mono temptations policy to Turkey, because Turkey does not have any regional project except in Syria, so the leadership of Recep Erdogan will just make use of the Russian Iranian coquetry in attempts to have roles and positions in Syria, as happened in the Syrian Northern front two months ago hoping to have a share in the Syrian political and real geography that can be negotiated upon, the fate of Syria rather than encouraging the solutions in it. The leaders of Russia and Iran know what does it mean the success of Turkey in this plan, and what if the future geography of Syria becomes a chessboard where Turkey has an influence in it, even if the referentiality of the Syrian country has been vacated by the leadership of the President Bashar Al-Assad, because this means the entrance into the game of politics and security within a movable loose geographical neighboring, and a demographic, popular, religious, ethnic, and national equations, where the Turks feel comfortable and undefeated to tamper in the Syrian interior, and where it can manipulate on its instincts, poverty and destruction produced by war. Saudi Arabia can retaliate by its money, thus the Syrian elections become like the Lebanese ones; money, media, and sects, while the Syrian scene will be like the Lebanese scene at the era of the Lebanese President Emile Lahoud in a constant state of defense, as if the war does end but it almost starts from the beginning, and there is no need to repeat in front of Iran and Russia that we talk here about Syria with all of what it represents and means.
Neither required from Iran and Russia to break off their relations with Turkey, nor to substitute it with Saudi Arabia as a partner in the solutions, but what is needed is the satisfactory, and that the solutions are not arrived yet, or that the war is still in its peak, Moreover all the partners of war against Syria have to pay the costs till they are aware that the settlements are the securer way, so they are obliged to choose them, the same applied for the Turkish and the Saudi with the difference of the Turkish cunning, deception, and hypocrisy. And when one of the parties becomes ready for the settlement, then to be out of it is a precondition and not a future promise, knowing that the Turks are not even in the process of achieving the future promises for Syria, because they profess of what they want and they bet on making use of the Russian-Iranian rapprochement to achieve further gains.
The war in Syria was and still the balance in drawing the region’s maps, the identity of the new regional system and the new international system. Furthermore the allies of this war are still allies who whenever one of them has achieved a profit, the others strengthen by it and at their forefront the Americans, therefore, it seems that the preparation for a decisive violent process in Syria to stop the Turkish intervention is an obligatory entrance to pave the way for serious settlements with the end of June. Thus they are two crucial months.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-04-29 | عدد القراءات 1949
