Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S   

Lavrov –Zarif –Oglu 

Settlement’s book of terms OR the confrontation

Written by Nasser Kandil,

This meeting has not occurred yet but it is inevitable. Turkey is the main player in the region against the Russian and the Iranian roles, and for the account of the Atlantic Alliance; it is not an independent country that draws its policies according to the interests’ balance which may lead to be out of the alliance. It is a country that has neutralizing maneuver in the alliance, and it tries hard to achieve together the alliance’s interests and its interests within the limits of the goals of this alliance. So the one who wants to know the real policies of the Atlantic Alliance in the Middle East, then neither following the Saudi nor the Egyptian, nor the Israeli policies will benefit him but the Turkish ones, so why to have assumptions as long as the only player in the region and the member in the alliance is Turkey?

In the confrontation which Russia has waged to prove its international presence in the region, Turkey was its confronting country. Turkey was the country which was entrusted by the leaders of the Atlantic Alliance for the state of emergency in the South East, while they entrusted the mission in the North of Africa to France according to Frankfurt meeting 2010. Moreover, the deal which caused the Arab Spring and the coups which changed the governments in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen as a preparation to reach Syria is the one that is held by the sponsorship of Turkey between the West and the Muslim Brotherhood in the meetings of Ankara in 2008. The Ottoman project which Recep Erdoghan has announced was a project for the whole Islamic world including the Republics of Central Asia where Turkey, Russia, and Iran are sharing the influence in them. The ambition of the new Ottoman project was to siege Russia and Iran by the emergence of the new Islamic expansion led by Turkey, and to enter into the areas of their national sovereignty by the force of its spread. Turkey has tampered with the strategic interests of Iran in the issue of oil and gas pipelines in an attempt to find a European substitute to close the Strait of Hormuz as a hypothesis that was possible at the escalations’ periods between the West and Iran, Furthermore, Turkey has interfered in the internal structure of the Crimea Peninsula against Russia, while it tried to close the Black Sea in front of it during the Atlantic escalation with the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, in addition to that, Turkey has grubbed also the war memories with the Safawis as a colliding history between the Islamic sects, while in fact it is an Iranian-Ottoman engagement that lived in the Turkish memory with the mentality of revenge.

It is not an exaggeration to say that as far as the outgoing confrontation with the West from the Russian- Iranian perspectives it was a confrontation in the Asian geography and specifically in the Middle East, and despite the role of the Saudi money and influence, the role of the Israeli anticipations and concerns, and despite the presence of changing arena for this confrontation, the important truth was that this confrontation was with Turkey in the Syrian geography, The Israeli and the Saudi are partners who were searching for a surplus profit or warding  off a disturbing loss, but the Turkish alone is an  entrepreneur, and the whole geography of the Middle East is a vital range for confrontation, but in Syria it is a war of a presence and a decisive victory or a fatal defeat.

With the endings that are in a way of maturing at the international and strategic level of the confrontations, and with the achievement of Russia and Iran the importance of the admission of their vital interests, Turkey seems to be the continuous dilemma and the future partner, while Syria seems to be the geography which the wars of drawing the coming balances will revolve around, either to determine the balance of the profits and losses for the teams and the players, or to draw a framework that is able to contain the expected surprises from both the Israeli and the Saudi, and to take them into considerations as a result of their inability to accept the losses, and the foolish assumptions which might glow in the minds of the decision-makers, so this requires the highest level of alert, vigilance, and diligence from Russia and Iran in order not  to commit a fatal mistake in the last quarter.

Turkey is the most important and the rests are details, so the meeting between the two Foreign Ministers of Iran and Russia Mohammed Jawad Zarif and Sergei Lavrov with the Turkish Prime Minister Dawood Oglu and the diplomacy-maker in his government will be more than a necessity, it is a meeting for explanation, putting the choices and the alternatives, drawing the proposed incentives to Turkey, in order to go on in the settlements’ option which becomes the famous option of Washington, or to continue the double dealing, and thus to stand in the Saudi Israeli trench and receiving the consequences of non- tolerance with any tampering in the Syrian geography.

The presence of Turkey (the father and the mother) of ISIS and Al-Nosrah Front on the bank of settlements starts from announcing that the kids are illegitimate, and  their taking out of the theatre requires a Turkish cooperation where there is no place for boasting, or to announce their adoption and bearing the responsibilities instead of them.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

2015-04-30 | عدد القراءات 1742