Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S   

Which equation controls the region: Idlib and Jis Al-Shogour or Al-Qalamoun and Najran ?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It does not matter what Saudi Arabia will announce as a response of the entry of the rebels and the tribes of Yemen to the province of Najran, and the escape of the Saudi soldiers in front of them, because Saudi Arabia has nothing left except more revenge against the civilians, it has put all of its capabilities in this war, while the Yemeni rebels wish to make this response a Saudi ground attack in order to make everything confused. So with seizing the opportunity will be the lesson which they want to teach to the rule of the kingdom. What is important is that the war against Yemen has consumed its opportunity in changing the balances of the region and thus has failed, so the seeking for an exit that saves its face as much as possible was the goal, accompanied with the Saudi announcement about a truce of five days, and the acceptance of holding the Yemeni dialogue to the sponsorship of the United Nations and in Geneva. Thus was the collapse of the political title of the war, so neither Al Houthis were neglected as an essential political component in any dialogue, nor the attempts of imposing the admission of the legitimacy of Mansour Hadi as a condition of dialogue have succeeded, nor Riyadh was imposed as a place, nor the Council of the Gulf Cooperation as a sponsor. In the Ground the Saudis are screaming about the progress of the rebels in Aden, Taiz and about the attack of Najran, in addition to the collapse of the National resolution that is issued by the International Security Council, so what is remained is blackness of the Saudi face.

The cross-borders attacks which were under the Jordanian, Turkish, Qatari, Israeli, and Saudi sponsorship and coordination, and which targeted Syria in its southern in Bosra and the crossing borders, and in its northern in Idlib and Jisr Al Shogour, have occurred in order to compensate the failure in changing the equation which affects the Saudi process “Decisive Storm” and despite the media impact on the processes, but they also could not change the ruling balances of the Syrian equation, which the state of the qualitative superiority of the army in the central region that extends from parts of Daraa to the parts of Aleppo, from the coast in the West to the desert in the East is expressing about, besides to the continuous attacks in Deir Al Zour, Hasaka, countryside of Sweida, Daraa, Idlib, and Aleppo.

Now after the war has taken a new form, and the great attacks in Al Qalamoun and Najran have started, it seems clearly that the forces of the resistance’s alliance have taken the lead, and where the change becomes a strategic change, because Al-Qalamoun and Najran are the liver of the war, and the success of the Yemeni rebels in their incursion into the Saudi territories, or by luring the Saudi troops to the ground war means the changing of the governing equations for a century ago in the Gulf, and the transforming of Saudi Arabia form a state of decision into a state of escape. While the start of the accelerating achievements of Al Qalmoun’s war means that the decisive geography of the war and peace in the Middle East, and which is extending from Hermon Mountain to the channel of the AL-Kabir River that stretches in the North between Lebanon and Syria and runs by the Eastern Mountains Chain, will be under the control of the resistance and the Syrian army. Therefore, the political consideration will start again on this basis; it was about who was controlling Damascus and Aleppo, and now controls Al Qalamoun, the same applied about who was controlling Aden and Sanaa, and now controls Najran.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

2015-05-09 | عدد القراءات 1955