Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
Lebanon and Syria will change after Al-Qalamoun
Written by Nasser Kandil,
The international and the national observations of the battles of Al-Qalamoun which are in their fourth fiery day of preparation before the decisive war takes place, are meeting on the crucial position of the consequences of this decisive confrontation between Hezbollah and Al-Qaeda Organization, despite the main role of the Syrian army on one hand, and the role of the supportive factions of Al-Nosrah Front as a local representative of Al-Qaeda Organization, which is publicly supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and Israel on the other hand. Everyone is agreeing that it is a decisive war between two organizations whose the biography of each one of them is full of the fierce fighting and the ability to achieve victories. It is the first great confrontation after Al-Quseir war was the first similar test for two years ago, and where Al-Qaeda has renounced of the responsibility of its defeat, holding the armed opposition factions that responsibility under the pretext that the presence of Al-Qaeda was not the main fighting force in Al-Quseir.
Everything in the war of Al-Qalamoun reveals that Al-Qaeda has brought, prepared, and became ready for a crucial fight, the same as Hezbollah, because the professional force which Al-Qaeda has brought to Al-Qalamoun two years ago, and evaded from the confrontation with the Syrian army by hiding in the bordered regions of Lebanon then kidnapping the Lebanese soldiers, in order to prevent any crucial confrontation by the Lebanese army and Hezbollah, and with depending on the roles of Lebanese parties, seems that it is ready to catch the ball which is passed by Al-Qaeda to prevent the resort to the military choice and the pressure to postponing the intervention of Hezbollah. All of these say that this force with its ordnance material, arming, and the quality of its fighters has an articulated mission that transcends the skirmishes and the internal dimensions of the war against Syria.
The geography of Al –Qalamoun with its extension which links with Al-Anbar across the desert of Homs and to the Mediterranean Sea across Ras Baalbek Al Danniyeh
, to Hermon Mountain across the Masnaa entry, and to Damascus across the orchards of Duma reveals that the ache-hour according to Al-Qaeda to wade the decisive war has been confused by the varying the timing of preparation in one of these four dimensions. Because when its fighters have prepared in the Northern of Lebanon, the road of Duma was open in front of Al-Qalamoun, but the siege of Homs has prevented the access to the desert, but when the road of desert was open, the Golan Front was not ready to embody the fighters of Al-Nosrah who arrived in coordination with Israel, furthermore, when Al –Nosrah Front was ready in Golan Front the Northern of Lebanon was witnessing the termination of Al-Qaeda’s sites, but when the situation in Northern Lebanon was reformed, the intervention cross Golan Front has been prevented after Al-Quneitra’s raid and the deterrent process of Shebaa Farms against the Israeli intervention. Today the access towards Duma has been prevented too, so the maturity has become serious and there must be a duel to reopen the way from Al –Qalamoun to Al-Quneitra Front and thus to Duma, because if the victory is achieved there, then it will be the only way to pursue..
According to Hezbollah, it is no longer possible to prolong the waiting while it knows that all the parties have been consumed, and knows more that the region is agitating to meet the maturities that accelerate to resolve their situations in a region, where all the players on its various platforms and places know that with the end of June and with attaining the date of the final signature of the Iranian nuclear understanding everything will change. Hence, those who want to do something, let them do whatever they want before that date. Hezbollah knows that unless it initiates then they will, and it knows that paving the way for the war starts by the attempt of attracting its central power which prepared itself for that war, to the Northern of Syria with the developments of Jisr Al Shogour and Idlib, moreover, it knows that melting the snow was when Al-Qaeda has announced the war, despite all the circumstances which are no longer favorable in Golan and around Damascus, but they will change if Al-Qaeda wins in Al –Qalamoun.
The sights are towards Al-Qalamoun from everywhere for many considerations from Saudi Arabia to Turkey, Qatar, France, and America, so the fate of the war against Syria will be decided there, and from Israel because the balance of deterrence may be affected there, and because the hope in reviving the security belt of Al-Nosrah around Golan is possible from there too. But in Syria and Lebanon there is another scene after the battles of Al-Qalamoun. It is certain that the victory of Al-Qaeda if it happens then will be as a fiery ball, that threatens with unprecedented acceleration by the participating forces in the war against Syria; in addition, it may lead to direct wars at least according to Turkey and Israel with a public direct generous Saudi funding, it means gathering all forces of Al-Qaeda in this war, and in Lebanon the enemies of Hezbollah and the resistance will assail for its entering the war in Syria, and the sleepy cells in the North will mobile in order to meet Al-Qalamoun form Al Danniyeh and Ras Baalbek, and probably from the Western Bekaa to Shebaa Farms, and probably perhaps in Ain Al-Hilweh and Sidon.
If the blessed signs of victory of Hezbollah in Al-Qalamoun continue then Syria will witness counter escalation, and the attacks of the Syrian army will launch without relentlessly towards the Northern and the Southern of Syria and towards the countryside of Damascus, thus the fiery ball will devour what stands in its way, furthermore, it is not far to send Syrian warnings supported by Russia and Iran to Turkey and Jordan to stop their tamper across the borders, In Lebanon there will be a new political equation that makes the presidential election available in front of the General Michel Aoun, and the time suitable for the security appointments and a new force balance that controls Lebanon.
Hence, the parties of 14th of March stand and their hearts are with Al-Qaeda Organization in the war of Al-Qalamaoun.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-05-12 | عدد القراءات 2028
