Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
Al-Qalamoun Peninsula: The war ends but the battles continue
Written by Nasser Kandil,
In the wars’ law, the war is made up of many battles and the end of the war is related to the end of battles which consists of. The war of Ukraine is supposed to be made up of many battles some of which are relating to Crimea Peninsula as a beginning and what is remaining is related to continuous battles about the states of Eastern Ukraine towards the future of rule in Kiev and its constitutional form, the imposition of settlements and ceasing-fire. But the strategists who have observed the war of Ukraine believe that the war has finished with the early resolution of Russia of the fate of Crimea Peninsula that goes beyond the military conquest to reopening its historical issue and making a progress that leads to reconsidering the geography of post Second World War, the boundaries of countries and entities and what that indicates of threat of surpassing the maps which are agreed upon respecting them internationally, so Russia has announced its containment, it has hold a referendum and accomplished all the constitutional complementation to make it a Russian land that is not subject to negotiation or reconsideration in less than a world war, because the Crimea Peninsula is the strategic section in the war of Ukraine, so its resolving means that the war has ended, and the remaining contentious battles have another task in the negotiation that affect the balances of division and unity in Ukraine, and may affect the future of the missile shield, but certainly it will not affect what the war was for, since the Crimea Peninsula is a harbor for the Russian fleet, an entrance to the Black Sea, and a gateway to Georgia so the matter becomes non-subject to negotiation and the ability to change.
The talking about the war of Ukraine which has not ended yet has emerged from those who are obsessed by the West hopes and desires in changing what is may affect; such as the war of oil prices in order to exert a pressure on Russia, or the sanctions, the economical blockade or arming the army of Kiev for a confrontation that drags Russia across the Ukrainian East, and considering that these elements which constitute with the fate of Crimea Peninsula an integrated unit at a strategic level, and therefore it is necessary to wait its completeness till the end in order to be able to estimate the consequence of the war from the battles which constitute it, but the development of the following battles in Ukraine and the end in a settlement that satisfies Russia, and not affecting the reconsideration of the fate of Crimea even from the government of Kiev proves that the war ended before all its battles end.
In Al-Qalamoun, and while the war takes place it is clear that its battles will continue till Al-Raqqa, because those who observed the negotiations of the last evening before the outbreak of the war, knew that the proposal was the withdrawal of militants of Al-Nosrah Front which constitutes the fighting power in Al-Qalamoun, and which consists of more than five thousands fighters in all their medium and heavy full equipments including the tanks and the long-range artillery, he knew as well that the battles which will revolve around the barren areas of Arsal and in the center of Arsal will be the most aggressive and virulent ones, moreover there will be inside the Syrian territories towards the extensions of Al-Qalamoun what will affect the desert of Homs down to Palmyra and towards Al-Raqqa on one hand, and on the other hand towards Duma and from it to Al-Qaboun and Ain Tarma, but these battles will not determine the future of the war, because the war has been resolved in the hill of Moses.
In Syria there are broad battles but the war of Al-Qalamoun has a strategic value not as number of battles, the quality, and the importance of the regions, they are not determined by the geography which related to Al-Qalamoun and which it includes, so the resolving in these regions or the consequences of these battles do not mean the resolving of war. The strategic value of the war of Al-Qalamoun is in the opportunity offered by the geography for Al-Nosrah Front through the leap which relates it to the Israeli occupation army in the surroundings of Hermon Mountain, and by the way breaks the relation between the Syrian army and the resistance, and thereby between Lebanon and Syria, the leap here is from the barren areas of Arsal where the important block of Al-Nosrah Front towards the foothills of Hermon Mountain passing by Al Zabadani and the area of Al Masnaa towards the Western Bekaa and parts of Golan.
The linking and the breaking are in the hills, mountains, and barren which their area is three hundred square kilometers which constitutes practically a peninsula that is related to the Lebanese lands and contains the barren areas of Nahla, Younine, and Brital and ends with the hill of Moses. So if Al-Nosrah succeeds in controlling them and linking its forces in the barren areas of Arsal with its forces in Al Zabadani, then the leap will still possible and the war open, and if it succeeds in leaping towards Al Masnaa from there and expanded towards the Western Bekaa and Golan, it will win the war even if the Syrian army and Hezbollah has succeeded in controlling the North of Al –Qalamoun in the barren areas of Arsal and Fleta towards Palmyra and Duma, but if the contrary occurs; in other words if the fighting block of Al-Nosrah remains controlling over the barren areas of Arsal, Fleta, towards Palmyra, and Duma and its failure in seizing the block which relates to Al Zabadani and what is beyond Al Zabadani in the North till the foothills of Hermon Mountain, and the success of Hezbollah and the Syrian army in controlling tightly over this strategic linkage including the hill of Moses then this means that the war ends with its strategic value and the remaining is battles that are inevitable and unavoidable, but they are as Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah has nominated it, a war of liberating Lebanon and Syria from the extremist groups and which is open till the end.
As the Peninsula of Crimea it is the Peninsula of Al-Qalamoun.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-05-20 | عدد القراءات 2144
