Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
The end of wars through the end of the Sultanate
Written by Nasser Kandil,
The observer of the region’s map neither can ignore the role of geography in making Syria the center of interest for crucial roles, and the expectation that whenever the world approaches fragile delicate balance, it requires a decisive hostile battle to reveal the balances which he based on for changing the equations, therefore Syria was the arena for this hostile battle, nor can he separates between what Syria is exposing to and its location in the political geography for the whole world across this east and which extends for a long time. What makes it important too is its location near the Mediterranean Sea for each of Russia, China, and Iran at the phase after the American withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, and its position for all the international and regional players at the time of racing for vital passages for gas and oil pipelines, and their intersection on the Syrian geographical area. But if this observer is able to discover and determine easily the powers which have interest in intervention, determines their names and their alliances without the need to wait for the attitudes and declarations or to have a look at the reports and discovering plots, will say quickly that it is impossible to attack Syria unless the Turkey opens its gate.
The West which is led by Washington knows that it cannot change Syria or affects its future except only through the Turkish gate because it is the balanced strong stable country that has an important economy and an army that is one of the strongest armies in the region, it is the only country among the countries of the region which has relations with the West countries through a Membership Association in the Atlantic alliance. Turkey has long neighborhood borders with Syria, and has demographic, economical, and religious intersection that allows it to be the only country that can make change, or to bet on making change in Syria. That is what Saudi Arabia, Israel, and others want to have its chances but they do not have the opportunity to present reasons and conditions to do it, but they bet on what is done by Turkey, and they just contribute in granting the necessary support in order to make it succeed in this task.
During the confrontation years in the region and which Syria constituted its main arena, and which its future was and still determines the future of the new regional and international balances which will draw the new map of the world for the coming century. The Turkish role was and still crucial because the conditions were ideal for Turkey to hold this task. In addition to Turkeys’ characteristics, it was irreparable opportunity when the Justice and Development Party has taken over the control of the government in Turkey as an organization stems from the Muslim Brotherhood, because the Syrian Brotherhood represent the main opposite force to the Syrian country and the most capable of playing the essence for a desired coup plan to change Syria, and from the same organization Hamas Movement stems which had full military base in Syria which some of it can be used, therefore the new commander of Al-Qaeda Organization Ayman Al Zawahri also stems from the Muslim Brotherhood, and his historical relationships with the original organization enables his new organization from playing a harmonious complementary role but according to Turkey’s equations The Justice and Development Party, which is led by an exceptional bilateralness Recep Erdogan and Dawood Oglu. This party has an imperial vision based on dreams of Ottoman Sultanate and that turns quickly into a personal dream for Erdogan to play a role of the new Ottoman Sultan that allows the external players especially the American and the Israeli ones to make use of this partisan aspiration and the accompanied personal ambition to agitate that dream whenever there is a need for more Turkish involvement in Syria.
At this time, the phase of the Turkish parliamentary elections will present a pivotal opportunity that will reveals a lot about the ability of Turkey to continue playing this role, Recep Erdogan has decided to put the dream of the sultanate of the internal constitutional aspect into effect, in conjunction with the economical political stagnation and the confusion as a result of the Turkish intervention into the Syrian affairs, and which its betting horse has been changed into a bilateralness that is ISIS and Al-Nusra after it was the Council of Istanbul, the coalition Doha and the Free Army. It is clear that these elections with this new presence which is represented by the organization of the Kurdish ranks within one party, and its chances of entering the parliament will grant conditions that lead to put Turkey Erdogan and Oglu in a very dark bottleneck where the failure of getting the majority of two-thirds becomes crucial according to Erdogan as a condition to amend the Constitution, while the absolute majority for constituting a government that has the same color is impossible. Thus the less evil solution is to reconcile Erdogan and his party to make Turkey retreats as a regional player for the account of fragile internal components in the rule, while the rest of the probabilities become between the constitutional political chaos which will emerge from constituting a government of minority and the early elections within a year, but the worse is the resorting of Erdogan to violence to impose his desired triumph, therefore he may ignite an unended war with the Kurds and maybe with the other sectarian or the secular components in Turkey.
Turkey is invited after the coming elections to be humble and to accept a role outside the major politics- making in the region, in order to be able to redraw its role on the basis of the necessity for many years for silence and a devotion to the internal conditions. In addition to mobilizing the rationality and the economical pragmatism once again outside the security Machiavellian, because it has accepted to play with the terrorism card and to bet on horses with the same ground and the same game’s rules, but they ruined the stable and scattered its contents, moreover spread the remnants of their droppings, thus it caused epidemics where there are no remedies or vaccines to confront afterwards, while the region seems to be invited to prepare itself for the ceremony of farewell of the Sultanate in addition to the consequences of subversive role of Turkey that brought a lot of scourge to the region and its entities.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-06-01 | عدد القراءات 1890
