Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
Frankly, in the extension: there is a winner and a looser
Written by Nasser Kandil,
It is normally that the opinion makers write, the constitutionals declare, and the institutions of the civil society shout in a loud voice; No for the extension. It is the sin which ceases the democracy and goes away of the assets, the same as the protesting shout of the presidential vacancy. This is from the initial point of view of the democratic regime, which based on respecting the constitutional deadlines, otherwise the constitution becomes as the gods of dates at the pre-Islamic epoch, in which the people worshiped them but when they felt hungry they ate them.
Most of the protesters know that the matters in politics does not conducted like this way, despite the savage way of playing with the constitution and modifying the texts in Lebanon, but all the countries of the world are governed by politics which codify laws, and which its scientists, thinkers, and the constitution rules- makers succeeded in choosing the time and the background to change the rules of the constitutional game, in order to stay active in controlling the political balances when these rules change. The civil value of the constitutions lies in being able to regulate and absorb the changes of the forces’ balances in the communities for relatively long phases, just in order to ensure a peaceful smooth transition to the authority. France was the fifth in its Republic Constitution, not only because of the genius constitutional discoveries, that are accompanied by amendments, but because it ensures the harmonization of the constitution with the political balances requirements and their variables and not vice versa.
In Lebanon, the political distortion is a constitution distortion also. For example, the Taif system is depending on two non –viable supports, the regional and the international foreign reference for controlling the balances, this task is charged to Syria. The balances have changed radically and totally in the world and the region, and the agency as well is no longer an issue of an internal, regional, and international consensus. On the other hand, Taif has sought for establishing a new balance between the sects, which the developments in the region have surpassed it, in addition, the blowing up of the multi-aspects and sects wars has made it from the past. As a result, those who want to preserve the essence of Taif have to wait for the new regional and international balances to be settled on clear ends, as well as the doctrinal and the sectarian balances have to be settled on new equations, in order to have a new agreement which has the sectarian aspect of Taif, and which is boned to the outside, Probably, it is supposed to be a Council of guarding consuls for the federalism.
The current deficit for finding a new president and for electing a new parliament is a natural outcome of Taif, since the vacancy in making new equations is resulting from the vacancy in the institutions.
Those who refused to follow a secular regime that based on the citizenship and the direct relationship between the citizen and the country without a compulsory passing through sects, and those who rejected the electoral regime that corresponds with the concept of the civil country, have not the right to shout neither against the extension, nor against the vacancy, because they are bidding, while the sticklers of Taif have to be respected by these protesters.
In politics, it is clear that the presidential vacancy and the parliamentary extension are two signs of the variables of what is coming after the resolution 1559 which was founded for the war of July, the confrontation finished or barely finished with the defeat of the resolution and its founders. The substitute of the political and military Syrian role has created during the war of July a rising in the roles of both parties of the understanding of 6th of February 2006, Hezbollah and its resistance on one hand and the Free Patriotic Movement on the other hand. Neither the process of preventive calling of the Lebanese Forces has succeeded through amnesty of its president, nor the attempt of taming the Lebanese Phalanges Party has succeeded in changing the new equation. The response was the engagement of Al-Mustaqbal Movement in the war on Syria, and the coverage of the nominations of Al-Qaeda as an extension of Saudi policy which the American Vice President Joe Biden has talked about. It is strange that no one has asked, how Saudi Arabia has brought the terrorists, funded, and armed them according to Biden’s speech, if the diapers and the blankets of Okab Saqr, the camps of Khaled Daher, and the cells of Bilal Duqmaq and Shadi Al-Mawlawi were not the translation (the intended)
In Syria, the plan of Al-Mustaqbal has failed as a representative of the decision –maker in Riyadh, the region has changed with the emergence of ISIL and AL-Nosrah, since the dual containment ( Saudi – Al Mustaqbal ) was not so benefit, so with the defeat of the original and the representative, their Taif has fallen by the knockout, and with the rising of the Levantine Christianity on the rhythm of the displacement and the cleaning which are taking place in the region, the political competition, and the conflict on the roles as well as the on the magnitudes have been proved in the Christian arena between the prominent ally of Al-Mustaqbal which is ( The forces Party ) and the prominent ally of Hezbollah which is the Free Patriotic Movement. Because the Lebanese Presidency is Christian, so the conflict is becoming crucial for two opposite parts locally, regionally, and internationally.
The Free Patriotic Movement has proved that it has an independent relationship within the alliance with its partner in the understanding, followed by Damascus and Tehran, while The Forces Party has proved that it has a subsequent relationship to Al-Mustaqbal, which is followed by Riyadh. The vacancy is a translation of the adherence of allies of The Free Patriotic Movement with its leader as a candidate, in contrast to AL-Mustaqbal which has abandoned of the election of its ally, moreover, it is proved that The Free Patriotic Movement is able to vote and to act adversely of its allies concerning the extension secession, on the contrary to The Forces Party. The insistence of the President Nabih Berri has come through showing the treaty in order to justify his abandonment of executing the parliamentary elections through his boycott of Al-Mustaqbal, in order to give the Christian treaty of the extension to Al-Mustaqbal and thereby The Forces Party is removed.
The Forces Party know that the refusal of Al-Mustaqbal’ s President Saad Al-Hariri in the participation in the elections is not a compliance with the presidential election, but to preserve his seats which is difficult to regain in any future elections, so the outcome of that, is a weakness in the parliamentary balance of AL-Hariri. The Forces Party knows as well that its acceptance of the extension of the parliament, which will lead to the presidential elections is not only a compliance to the demands of Al-Mustaqbal, but also the fear of the elections and its results, while the enthusiasm of The Free Patriotic Movement in refusing the extension is an expressing of its proven credibility with its audience, and which it is able to do, and a trust in the opportunities which are offered by the elections, in which the Christians will not choose who once told them that the pioneers of the battle of Al Ashrafieh are our allies, and who told them also that Al-Nosrah and ISIL are rebels before Washington had announced an alliance to fight them.
The forces of 8th of March knew why they voted for the extension, apart from the speech about the fear of the vacancy; they knew the essential role in controlling the process of the presidential elections which are executed by the parliament. Therefore, the actual extension which the deputies of 8th of March have voted for, is for the presidency of the council rather from the council, while the votes of 14th of March were for extending the reign of their threatened colleagues to not let them lose their seats like, Khaled Daher and the deputies of the Forces Party.
In politics, there is a looser and a winner. The first winner is (The Free Patriotic Movement), while the first looser is ( The Lebanese Phalanges Party ).
2014-11-07 | عدد القراءات 1543
