Like this day after a week on the thirtieth of June will be the anticipated deadline to resolve the Iranian nuclear program by announcing the reach to an understanding, or the failure and the stopping of the negotiations, as long as the extension if it occurs then it will be a pure technical one that will not last for more than days and will mean implicitly the reach to an understanding, which it has a detailed principled draft and it was signed three months ago, so there is no need to talk about a negotiated extension of the principles, it is just the extension on the basis of the agreement and the need of time for final formulations for some items, which unlike the case of Vienna negotiations which have ended on the twenty fourth of November last year without agreement, but they culminated by an extension of seven months that end on the thirtieth of this month, their first part has finished in the end of the last March by signing the draft, when the two assumptions of reaching to an agreement or to a failure at that time were equal.
In case of not signing the understanding then the global and the regional situation will enter into complexity as the entry into a dark tunnel, as if a world war is going to occur tomorrow, where Washington and the West countries will impose strict sanctions against Iran, Iran will announce the return to a higher- rate enrichment and storing what is enriched, so one month more or less is enough to make Iran possess which is enough to make a bomb, which it is still announcing that it does not want to possess, but it makes of religious and moral prohibition a reason for not possessing it, the tension and the threat will increase and maybe the military harassment and some skirmishes, which makes Iran closer to announce of its right to possess the bomb in order to avoid any aggression, and it is closer more likely to hear about the experience of Iran for the first missile with a nuclear warhead, a missile that Iran possesses thousands, its range reaches to the farthest Western capitals, and it needs less than what the bomb needs of enriched uranium, therefore, the international background will be tensioned and the negotiations are back, but to admit of Iran as a military nuclear country, and perhaps Iran will not accept less than a permanent membership in the Security Council. So the American mind will tell who led the negotiations to failure, you foolish what have you done for us?
The second possibility in the case of failure is the ascending of the regional tensions which surround Iran and its allies, and the return of Washington to mobilize, activate and motivate the angry allies of the agreement, so the harshest confrontations will ignite from Iraq to Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon and maybe some fronts will interfere such as Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates in regional skirmished that may change the map of the regional geography as the skirmishes in the Red Sea which may reach to Eritrea, Sudan, Egypt, and elsewhere but this will happen after the American relations with each of Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia the most prominent allied of America in the region have affected, and after those have exhausted all of their abilities and potentials, where Turkey is sinking within internal problems that make it incapable than before to wade war , Saudi Arabia fails in Yemen war which has exhausted its sovereignty, capabilities, and its rank. and suffers from deadly internal conflicts, where ISIS and Al-Qaeda will attack it from the inside, Israel failed in amending the deterrence balances with Hezbollah, while the Syrian opposition has disappeared and there is nothing left except ISIS and Al Nusra in the field but both of them are not in their best conditions, even if Washington has culminated the confrontation with the choice of the war directly, so will the American mind comments on who has brought the negotiation to failure, if you want the choice of confrontation, have not you known that its best conditions were two years ago when the American fleets have come to attack Syria under the coverage of accusing it of using chemical weapons and while all the allies were in readiness and a moral and material conditions that allow them to go to war, Moreover the branches of Al Qaeda were not the only reason for any victory that Washington dreams of achieving, so the American mind says to the owner of the failure’s choice have not you thought deeply when you have engaged with Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia and exhausted their abilities, you idiot did not you think of all of that to come to the war after it is too late, moreover who does ensure your winning after the people had heard you saying that the war will be the most difficult and the worst than the two wars of Iraq and Afghanistan together a hundred times, and had seen you defeated so why do you want to repeat the same thing, only if this is your only way to have the courage to go and sign as a solution to get rid of the war after involving in it, and asking the allies to find a solution whatever is the cost because they are objectors, they do not understand unless they get involved and lose ?
What is remained is the probability of success of terminating the negotiation at the end of this month and the announcing of the understanding such as today or a week later or a little while, so the region will enter a new phase entirely. Iran will be liberated from an international speech that will trace it as an outlaw country, it restores frozen balances of hundred and fifty billion dollars, and it regains its rank in the global market of oil and gas by producing four times of what it produces and sells today, the markets will be opened in front of it and the investments will wait for it, while in politics the war against terrorism will be the title of the allowable required partnership between Washington and Tehran in the region, while the Turkish, the Saudi, and the Israeli the allies of Washington will face bad luck and misfortune and will wait for the worst, because they have suffered and missed a lot and have been defeated in the wars against Iran’s allies while Iran was besieged and has been punished and prosecuted. So how if Iran is in its best conditions, the separation will be the fate between America and the allies, furthermore America will reach to a conviction that keeping these countries as allies will call to change their rulers and that the cooperation with Iran and its allies will be temporal, so it is not a taboo, only if this refraining is to take the considerations of its allies whom they do not worth that consideration. Thus the region will enter into the phase of dismantling and rejoining of the loyal governments to Washington, and which are opposed by the victories of Iran’s allies where the confrontation integrated with Washington’s allies in the war against terrorism, where the bargaining horse of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel is ISIS, Al Nusra, and Al Qaeda as the situation in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, so the allies of the allies in everywhere as in Lebanon will feel that their heads will roll so will they do it early?
In every probability the end meets the other, and the meeting is to return to negotiations but in worst conditions to Washington, and more blacker to its allies, so who is that idiot fool who wastes the opportunity of signing the understanding in its date and its best conditions, even if the fear begins early because the difference is huge between the feeling of that the heads will roll in anticipation out of hitting, and the feeling of that the heads will roll in anticipation out of cutting.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-06-28 | عدد القراءات 2121
