Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
Stealing time …. And a folly in Lebanon ?
Written by Nasser Kandil,
Vienna’s rapid train is moving towards the last station, it seemed that it has one load which is the Iranian nuclear program, it is true but with this load alone it carries three additional loads, the first load is that the West which punished Iran and besieged it has failed in preventing it from attaining all the necessary technical stages for possessing the ability of making a nuclear bomb, thus its only way is to reconcile with it in order not to refrain it from using this ability to achieve that stage, which means the voluntary refrainment of enriching uranium at high rates, and the abstaining from storing the enriched uranium, as long as neither the war constitutes a guarantee of success for achieving this goal, nor the sanctions or the siege have succeeded, so the only alternative is the tempting of lifting the sanctions and raising the blockade in exchange of consensual guarantees which Iran provided to explain that abstaining, it means adopting the carrot after the method of stick has failed.
The second load is that any threat concerning any other issue makes Iran using a paper entitled the returning to enrichment and storing, after the desired advantage of lifting the sanctions had returned the frozen balances as long as what is left of sanctions Iran has used to coexist with it, which means as well that Iran will be far from the threat once again in all issues of disagreement especially the regional ones and that Iran which keeps its commitment to the nuclear understanding has gained what it wanted of all the necessary techniques which make it an implicit member in the club of the major nuclear countries.
The third implicit load of Vienna’s train is that Iran concerning the force data in its nuclear issue has succeeded in refusing any attempt of inserting the files of the major igniting disagreement in the region within the barters of the nuclear program. The West and at its forefront Washington has tried to compensate the inability of preventing Iran from achieving the position which it wanted regarding the nuclear program, in return of some costs in order to lift the sanctions, starting from the bargaining on its attitude towards Syria and its president, its attitude towards supporting the resistance, its upper speech about the presence of Israel, and its supportive policy towards the opposed forces of the Saudi dominance on the Gulf, but the sanctions, siege, the pressure on Syria, extortion in Iraq, moving the Ottoman Turkish lust and the atoning Saudi Wahhabism, ISIS, and Al-Nusra all of them have failed in merging the issues and achieving the barters.
Any subsequent research of the region’s files will be proposed after the nuclear understanding from two equations; the ability of Iran of imposing pressure and threatening of returning to the enrichment against any West threat of changing the equations by force on one hand, and the entry of America’s allies into the negotiation from a weak site on the other hand, so the negotiations become mandatory as long as the important issue has been resolved by them. Therefore, what is the benefit of betting on force, because who bets on weakening Iran by force does not sign an understanding that ensures for it profits as an opponent that thinks that after months it will wade a war against that opponent and wins in it, but what is normal is to wait for the war and resolve everything. Thus the negotiation on the regional issues will take place after everyone had tried his experiences and reached to their ends. Now Turkey is wounded after the elections, it is withdrawing its speech of the crowds on the borders with Syria, its speech of the buffer zones, the aerial embargoes. The same as Saudi Arabia which is waiting for a miracle that saves it from the continuous drowning in the Yemeni quagmire, and Israel is out of hand, filled with wounds from everywhere.
Attempts for sealing time have taken place and will happen before Vienna’s train arrives to its station, but they will not change the facts. What is important is that these attempts may commit follies that will ignite a bombing that is difficult to stop. If Turkey and Israel which are under the pressure of considerations and deterrent balances and relatively far from the adventures, they are doomed by ruling regimes that preventing the personal gambles, So the focus now is on the folly of Saudi Arabia, to blow up the situation in somewhere, so Lebanon will become a subject of special attention despite all the indications that show that the situation is under control, so the Lebanese must pay attention for the few coming days.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-07-04 | عدد القراءات 1796
