Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
New world & package of understandings
It is not mere a nuclear understanding
Written by Nasser Kandil,
Those who theorize, estimate, compare, and conclude may commit a mistake concerning the Iranian nuclear issue, since it is a negotiating file that bears the success and the failure, so they wait for the news and what it has of optimism and pessimism, because the file is a part of a package of files that are controlled by one equation and has one fate. Any observer who has an ability to read can know and conclude the fact that the nuclear understanding is coming no matter the delay or the extension of the negotiations, and that the outstanding contentious titles are new and were not any more a basis in the nomination of the Iranian nuclear issue, but they are protocol elements of Iran’s accession to the super powers club because what is proposed is neither for a deliberate escalation nor for justifying the extension within the requirements of taming the public opinion and preparing it to accept the understanding, but because the major powers club has become seven with Germany and Iran. Thus there must be rules for this new club, and conditions for the accession of a new member, and this explains proposing negotiating titles such as the issue of the ballistic missiles, the issue of the high quality informatics programs, the processed minerals industrially for the development of the plants of steel and pipes, and the new banking equations which will control the relation of Iran with the universal banks and the remittance rules and the verification of their destinations and resources.
The Iranian nuclear understanding is like the keystone in the old oriental building, where among the stones which the house consists of there is a “keystone” if it is dragged out of its place then the whole building will collapse and not only the stone. The observer will recognize the meaning of the year 2015 after four years of multi arenas and powers wars, from Yemen in the South to Ukraine in the North and from Libya in the West to Afghanistan in the East, and that these wars have produced equations and balances that transcend their local arenas, because the war of Yemen is the war of the Saudi influence, the war of Ukraine is the war of Russia’s rank, and the cold Lebanon war is the background for the security of the resistance, while the war of Syria is the war of the map of the new Middle East, moreover the war of Libya is the war of the party of Recep Erdoghan after the fall of the rule of Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Tunisia, and the failure of their war in Syria and Yemen as well their failure in the parliamentary elections in Turkey. Therefore the year 2015 witnessed the emergence of a background agreement for some of these wars and now is witnessing the emergence of an agreement for some as well.
The Syrian war is the crucial joint in every scene of the wars, because due to it the understanding concerning the Iranian nuclear issue has been postponed, and while waiting for its results and testing its choices the negotiation has been extended repeatedly, because the negotiations of Baghdad in August in 2012 have formulated the principles of the understanding on the nuclear aspect of the issue, which is the bargain on seizing Iran of the high ratio of uranium enrichment and refraining from storing the enrichment in return of lifting the sanctions against it by the West. All the wars have continued since that date in order to make Iran accept the linking between this understanding and the abdication of Syria. Now the nuclear program has its way towards understanding only because everything has ended or approaching its end. What has been told by the Russian President Putin is enough to describe the scene, after his talk with the Saudi King and his meeting with his son the Minister of Defense and his insistence on the presence of the press media, saying to the Syrian Minister of foreign affairs Walid Moualem that the way for emerging a regional alliance that includes Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey for fighting the terrorism has become possible and that the risk of terrorism is threatening everything and everywhere, and that the rank of Syria, its president, and its army in confronting this terrorism make them a keystone in this war and that the whole world is now admitting of that.
The series which is going on regularly step by step despite the impossibility of calming down the igniting at once, reveals that the package of the understandings is moving sequentially, complicating here and cambering there, rising here and calming down there, but all of them are being prepared for a track that it seemed that no one can to stop it, from the Minsk understanding as a background agreement about Ukraine which is progressing despite all the troubles and the difficulties, taking into consideration the rank of Russia and a background agreement about the Iranian nuclear program that is moving towards turning into a final understanding, as well as a background agreement about Yemen that is gradually emerged in order to transfer the referentiality of the dialogue from Saudi Arabia to the United Nations and its place from Riyadh to Geneva and a balanced participation of the Yemeni parties, and a truce that based on raising the Saudi marine and the aerial blockade by transforming the referentiality of inspection to the United Nations. Despite the difficulty of the Saudi acceptance of the defeat, it is enough politically to announce the acceptance even if the processes on ground were disrupted temporally, in addition to the background agreement which the UN envoy to Syria Staffan De Mistura has promised to launch about Syria with an American Russian agreement, that is centered on adopting the ballot boxes for the establishment of the authority and the title of the war against the common terrorism as a platform for reconciliations on the basis of the legitimacy of the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and the centrality of the Syrian army in the war against terrorism, the same as De Mistura the UN Envoy of Yemen and UN Envoy of Libya are moving towards developing a background agreement for each of them, while in Afghanistan the world is prepared for an American-Russian-Iranian –Chinese understanding that paves the way towards political construction that is sponsor
What is going on in Vienna is a beginning for establishing equations that will rule the world for many long years, and those who will stand against it, will be smashed by the bus which will not stop till the end station. The observers remember the scene of the late eighties and the early nineties and the rules of balances which were emerged at that time, and which ruled the world for a quarter of a century from the fall of Berlin Wall, and the disintegration of the Soviet Union to the launching of Madrid process for peace between Syria and Israel, the emergence of Oslo accords and the treaty of Wadi Araba, the Desert Storm for liberating Kuwait and the war of Yugoslavia, and the end of the Iraqi Iranian war, in addition to the emergence of Al Taif Agreement in Lebanon. Who is following what is going on will quickly discover that the world which was born is now falling, and that a new world is being prepared for the birth including new balances, new players and different equations that control their relationships , and in the light of them a new Taif or “Masqat” will be born and that the General Michael Aoun is within this new Lebanon and who is standing against the emergence of such a Lebanon will exchange with the General Aoun the roles at the time when he stood against Al- Taif Agreement and he was standing against an equation of a new world with pure Lebanese considerations so he paid the cost highly.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-07-16 | عدد القراءات 1918
