Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S
The threat of Fourteenth of March’s team with a president without two-thirds
Written by Nasser Kandil,
Suddenly a resource in the Fourteenth of March declares that the forces of Eighth of March have to beware of the risk of keeping up with the General Michel Aoun by the call for anticipate holding the parliamentary elections before the presidential elections, pointing that “ Any move in this regard threatens the Lebanese regime as a whole and we will not submit to it since we respect our Constitution, and refuse the logic of imposing which is taken by the opponent team whenever it falls in trouble” The speech has a different tone, and that every dialogue alert reveals the risks which it may sees as a reason for division, so it calls for avoiding it, and ensuring the importance of the dialogue and the understanding towards emphasizing the priority of electing new president for the Republic.
The forces of the Fourteenth of March know that the call of the General Aoun has not changed into an official speech for the forces of the Eighth of March which their leaders including the leaders of Hezbollah are still the first ally for Aoun, they assert that their priority is still electing a president for the Republic and they call to have an understanding with Aoun on this basis, so why are the forces of Fourteenth of March looking for a fake opponent and a fake hypothesis at least till now? So they threaten of such a “ move that threatens the Lebanese regime as a whole, so we will not submit to it since we respect our Constitution, and refuse the logic of imposing which is taken by the opponent team whenever it falls in trouble”
The forces of Fourteenth of March want the provocation and want to push the matters towards the escalation about Don Quixote’s war entitles the biographies of the forces of the Eighth of March by refusing the presidential elections and requiring their anticipation with parliamentary elections, they know that this was not announced by the forces of Eighth of March despite that the General Aoun has promised of it repeatedly, and they know that the General Aoun has said within his famous initiative which included the adopting of a poll opinion for the parliament by identifying two Christian candidates in order to compete before the parliament, this suggestion was accepted by the Chairman of the Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea one of the leaders of the forces of Fourteenth of March. In case of this presidential complexity the initiative includes a unilateral exit; the parliamentary elections, despite the escalation of adopting the initiative by General Aoun he added to it that the parliament is unqualified because of the extension for itself, and it is illegitimate because it was elected originally according to the law of elections that does not guarantee the right representation, but all of these do not eliminate that the logic of Aoun was and still deprived from the hypothesis of continuing the vacancy which according to his opinion and the opinion of his allies is resulting from the presence of Saudi veto, which the forces of Fourteenth of March adopt, and this prevents his arrival to the presidency, despite the admission that he is the personality which has the parliamentary and the popular representation of the Christians which are supposed to come out of them a president for the Republic.
The equation of the forces of Fourteenth of March “ we will not submit” means firstly that the veto on the arrival of the General Aoun to the presidency is continuous otherwise there is no justification to respond, because in case of accepting Aoun as a president then there will be no justification for what Aoun has said on the basis of the inability of electing a president and in particular the veto for preventing his election, and the equation of “ we will not submit “ means secondly that the vacancy will last for a long time, and thirdly it means that as well as Aoun has thought of an equation for responding to the veto and the prevention of his arrival by the vacancy so he invented the equation of the parliamentary elections and the forces of Fourteenth of March have to invent as his equation.
The forces of Fourteenth of March know that the only way which seems passable for the initiative of Aoun is to agree on it, but this does not mean a threat for the constitutional regime, and does not call for a threat, because not accepting is enough to prevent continuing in this choice, and without the collective agreement the way does not seem easily passable for the initiative of Aoun, even if the forces of Eighth of March which are being warned have accepted and adopted it. The parliamentary elections need a new law that in return needs holding the parliament and majorities for voting on the law, while according to the majority the votes on the bloc of the Deputy Walid Jumblatt are still a factor for turning the scale, and every vote on a law that does not take into account the parliamentary interests of Jumblatt and does not stem from the understanding with him will fail in having the majority. When the vote of Jumblatt is guaranteed with electoral law then certainly it will not be the law which Aoun wanted, for granting the Christians the opportunity of choosing their deputies because first and foremost it will be at the expense of those who occupy the Christian seats in the parliament in non Christian blocs and non Christian votes and at their forefront Jumblatt, and if Aoun has presented a draft for a law that is accepted electorally by Jumblatt and has made an alliance with him that ensures his vote for the account of the new law. Then this implicitly means the ability of making a deal with Jumblatt who knows that Aoun will not go on with the electoral law that does not guarantee for him the majority for his arrival to presidency, otherwise what is the value of the whole initiative and the talk about its ability to penetrate the indolence, ending the vacancy and making new majority entitled a right Christian representation. In this case it would be the easiest as long as the deal contains a presidency, parliamentary elections, and new electoral law, to start with electing a president, so Aoun will be elected by Jumblatt, then the forces of Fourteenth of March will not be able to disrupt it, while they are houting day and night calling for securing the quorum whatever was the electoral result of the president and whatever was the name of the president and it will be for whom has guaranteed the parliamentary majority as an ensured chance to win the presidency.
The warning of the forces of Fourteenth of March means that there is no hypothesis for a Aoun-Jumblatt deal because the presence of a deal prevents the warning and makes it go on in the constitutional way which the warning claims its protection, so the warning has one justification which is raising the level of challenge with Aoun’s proposal which does not have a mechanism for execution and putting it in the confrontation and preparing by depending on it to propose an alternative mechanism that says as long as there is a vacancy and an impossibility of electing in the current circumstances, so we have to choose between two choices one is holding the parliamentary elections firstly and one for electing a president outside the quorum of two-thirds of the parliament, this is the project which the deputies of the Fourteenth of March have promised of it again from Bkirki before a short time and was required a harsh respond from the president of the parliament.
This has happened before within the scenario of the Prime Minister Fouad Al Siniora, It seemed that the indicators are accelerated towards regaining this example, by the political and media escalation and meeting the maturities of the security and the military appointments successively in extension towards a commander of an army, hoping that Aoun will express his threat, so the road will be ignited as well as the government, therefore Lebanon will be driven to the great division, while according to the forces of Fourteenth of March there is a new opportunity that grants Aoun an election law, and paves the way for a meditative candidate; it is the commander of the army to the presidency once again.
What can the forces of Eighth of March do, while now they are in a trouble as the warning stated? Does the General Aoun represent for the resistance what is equivalent or more than the communication network which was targeted by the government of Al- Siniora, therefore the escalation of the forces of Fourteenth of March will be an entrance for the explosion?
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-07-23 | عدد القراءات 2029
