Dotting the I’S & Crossing the T’S   

Turkish-Israeli igniting: Inability to change the equations

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The Syrian fronts in the north and in the south have witnessed and are expected to witness an igniting which its features has started with the raids which the aircrafts that belong to the two governments of the Sultanate and the occupation had launched towards goals inside the Syrian territories with one title” Our national security is threatened from inside the Syrian borders, so we will respond”, so while the government of Recep Erdogan and Dawood Oglu is linking the threat with each of ISIS and the Kurds, Israel is linking the threat with Hezbollah, Theoretically the raids want to deport the threat, but the obvious question for each one of them, whether the raids will undertake in deporting this threat?

The Turkish government announced that it will not do any ground action inside the Syrian territories, but at the same time  it knows that the qualitative shift in the track of the balances against both of ISIS and Kurds is not achieved only by the ground action, Israel announced after the process of Shebaa Farms that it will absorb the shock despite its severity in order to prevent the escalation, thus its lack of readiness of objectivity and not the circumstantial readiness, and its unwillingness depending of that, and not on the basis of need to enter into a state of war, while the Turkish and the Israeli needs are to enter into the state of war. Now the need of Turkey is to go to a war in order to impose its role in the war against terrorism, so that prevents the American from paying attention  to the Syrian country and its army as an evitable partner in this war which has become an insurance policy for the ruling Democratic Party to win in the presidential elections and that the American openness to the Syrian country is a matter through which the government of Erdogan and Oglu considers that they are the first losers, As Israel was after the qualitative process of Shebaa Farms, in need to go to a war that it may lead to a confrontation with Iran in order to stabilize the deterrence balance, in which it said through it that it can change the power balances and thus changing the rules of negotiation regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, but now it is too late for a war to change the nuclear understanding. And as the power’s balance has prevented the entry of Israel into the war at that time, as the power’s balance prevents the Turkish entry in the state of war today. Furthermore, the Turkish community seems to refuse to bear the consequences of a confrontation that will call out the Syrian country and pushes it towards sovereign reactions, which as soon as they will escalate to the extent of exchanging the missile fire in the Syrian and Turkish depths, and the war will turn into a regional confrontation after the end of the phase of the Great War, which was desired by the Washington's allies. It is a war with Iran. Therefore the resulted scene of the bordered war  is a Syrian Turkish negotiation under a Russian American, and Iranian  sponsorship while Turkey is proceeded as a regional equivalent to Iran in order to negotiate with it not to deal with it as a godfather of the solutions.

If the Turkish Israeli igniting was not a beginning of a state of war that will change the rules of balances, and was not a protection for the concept of the security by deporting the risk of the borders, so what is it then?

The international and the regional scene reveals that the nuclear understanding with Iran has closed the choices of wars in drawing the political and the geographical maps on one hand, and in imposing settlements of the open regional files on the other hand, so the one who is absent in these files by the force of fire will not have a place on the negotiation tables, so what is done by the Turkish and the Israeli is to reserve a seat at this table.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh, 

2015-08-01 | عدد القراءات 1883