Written by Nasser Kandil,
Before Vienna’s meeting the Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Jubeir was blustering, and threatening, even he has held a press conference on the last Wednesday with his British counterpart Philip Hammond, he said to the journalists that Vienna’s meeting will be the last chance to test the intensions of the Iranians and the Russians to reach to a scheduled date for the departure of the Syrian President, and if this scheduled date for his departure was not achieved, then his country will not attend subsequent meetings, and will resort to other ways. But after the end of Vienna’s meeting Al-Jubeir has talked briefly without diffusion through which the journalists have accustomed to hear from him, he said that it was agreed to postpone the dispute’s issues for future meeting that will be determined later, so what has happened to make Al-Jubeir calm down?
The Saudis went to Vienna for the first time and they know that the Russian military presence became a crucial factor in determining the future of the ground in Syria, and that the matter is neither due to the magnitude of the Russian fire ability which was granted for the Syrian army and its allies alone, nor due to the accuracy of its targeting, and the verification of the results of dealing with their goals according to the system of satellites, technical, intertwined, advanced complicated intelligence that are linked to the base of monitoring and survey of the cosmic space in Siberia, and despite of all the importance of imposing a new rhythm of the war on Syria but the most important is who stood behind that, it is superpower entitled Russia, where its presence stops the movement of others according to the principle of that the superpowers do not meet on the same ground directly, moreover the allies of the superpowers are prevented to do what the superpowers refrain from doing, this means that it cannot be betted neither on America nor on the Atlantic Alliance regarding their ground presence, or the centralizing of their bases in Syria or at its borders to form a challenge in front of the Russian presence, moreover it is not possible for Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, or others to do so, because the choice of the victory on the terrorism becomes equivalent to the morale of the superpower Russia, and the causing of its failure through indirect ways as in Afghanistan in the days of the Soviet Red Army is not possible not only because of the changing and the difference of the incubator background, the allied army and the development of the opponent as a pure terrorist composition and not as a national resisting force against a foreign invasion, but also because the withdrawal of Iran and Russia from the war on terrorism after their defeat in front of it, means according to the West the starting of the reverse attack of this terrorism to overthrow Europe after the complete control on Syria and Iraq, so how if the reason of this defeat was the supporting of the West ‘ally which is Saudi Arabia, which is presented to this terrorism because of the stubbornness and arrogance, and how if this defeat which was promised by Saudi Arabia to Russia will mean an ISIS expansion towards Saudi Arabia itself, which its Precursors started to emerge with the danger of defeating the terrorism and not Russia, through the moving of the wandering groups after the defeat in Al Anbar towards the borders with Saudi Arabia in Al Rotba area instead of their flee to Al Mosul?
What has happened in Vienna is that Saudi Arabia has been informed by the Americans and the Europeans that the objections on the controversial titles with Russia and Iran about Syria were not equivalent to the risk of losing the war on terrorism according to the West, and that the negotiated way is the only available way with Russia and Iran, from a common position entitled the winning of the war on terrorism, so the parallel way is the competition with Russia and Iran in making this victory. Furthermore the only possible intervention form of the West and its allies is through supporting groups of the opposition that are ready to participate in the war against ISIS and preceding Russia, Iran, and the Syrian army in reaching to the areas that are under the dominance of ISIS, before Russia and its allies terminate the situations in the north of Syria and its South where Al Nusra Front is dominating, so it will engage wholly in the areas which are under the control of ISIS. Therefore the sharing of the geography which is under the occupation of ISIS and Al-Nusra between the Syrian army and the opposition groups which are supported by the West and its allies will improve the conditions of the negotiation.
What has happened in Vienna is that America has said after an overstrain through the spokesman of its President Barak Obama; that according to the importance of the decision and its history, it will participate to achieve that goal through ground troops through twenty fighters to sponsor this qualitative historic process, and that its Secretary of State John Kerry has said at the presence of his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov that the differences between Washington and Moscow do not prevent the agreement on continuing a political process that leads to leaving the matter for the Syrians to decide the fate of the Syrian presidency, thus Al-Jubeir has understood that he has to be polite and to read the message.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2015-11-01 | عدد القراءات 1826
