Written by Nasser Kandil,

Some analysts and observers promote and maybe some politicians assume two possibilities, the first is the death of the nomination of the Deputy Suleiman Franjieh once there is not any proceeding in it to the ballot boxes within days and maximum in few weeks, the second possibility is the opportunity of the return to a third name other than the General Michael Aoun and the Deputy Suleiman Franjieh, thus the search here becomes for a moderate name as features of the required candidate. Those stem from the fact that the fall of Franjieh’s settlement is achieved by its delay because it is an progressive process, so once it stumbled and did not arrive to the last harvest with the same acceleration through which it started, it falls, burns, and becomes regardless, in view of the fact that the proceeding in it was to exclude the General Aoun thus the opportunities will be available for others, this does not mean surely a candidate from the opposite team but a candidate from the moderate names which are acceptable by everyone and do not constitute a challenge, this explanation of the exclusion of Aoun on one hand, and the refusal of Franjieh’s settlement on the other hand stems from that the nomination of a leader as a president is provoking his political opponents, because he grants the presidency under his leadership an importance to his political trend, by contrast he will challenge his rivals within his community because he grants his leadership an importance from his presidential position, while the moderate president does not provoke anyone and does not challenge anyone because he is without political trend and originally without an importance.

Those are ignoring that the experience of Franjieh’s nomination has revealed what is far beyond Lebanon and it is related to the Lebanese presidency, because when the opposite camp to Syria and the resistance the two real supporters of the nomination of Aoun becomes unable to proceed in a presidential maneuver that has a name other than Franjieh, the ally of Syria and the resistance in an equal degree and maybe more than the affiliation of Aoun with it,  this is not in vain or by coincidence, but it is an expression of  the forces’ balances that rule the region’s equations after the Russian entrance to it , and an expression of the West equations after the entrance of the terrorism to its territories, where Syria and Hezbollah become the winning paper twice, once because they are the capable ally to make use of the Russian surplus power presidentially in Lebanon, and once because they are the additive value in the war on terrorism which is able to be translated in the Lebanese presidency after it led to fortify the Syrian presidency in favor of the President Bashar Al-Assad internationally, they are the only ground force which gives the World War on terrorism its desired goal, which it is the missed ground force in the West background, its choices ,and its alliances, and which without it there is no plausible hope in winning on terrorism after this terrorism has become an internal challenge in all the Western countries.

On the Lebanese basis, the experience has shown till now that the international admission of the Russian surplus power and how to make use of it in the Lebanese presidency, and the additive value of the Syria and Hezbollah in the war on terrorism and its position in the Lebanese presidency are able to be translated by the most important opposite team of Syria and Hezbollah regionally, namely Saudi Arabia and in Lebanon it is Al Mostaqbal Movement, therefore, the proof  is the admissibility and even the enthusiasm though which the project of the proposed settlement of the nomination of Franjieh has been promoted, thus every development along the time will affect the settlement as long as the international and the regional changes which are related to the Russian surplus power and the additive value of Syria and Hezbollah in the war on terrorism are toward more emergence from Syria and Iraq, toward Yemen, surely it has a meaning; the coming developments if they do not lead to the return to the  option of Aoun presidentially, then at least it will not allow other than Franjieh a president.

On the Lebanese basis, the experience has shown that the political and the parliamentary blocs which the settlement has betted on their ability to produce a bloc that is capable of proceeding in the settlement is embarrassing Hezbollah and Syria, thus they choose whether to go on in it publically or to drive the attention off a parliamentary composition, through which it proceeds and makes it succeed, is not to proceed away from the deep partnership that stems from the conviction of Hezbollah and Syria. The touchstone here is the bilateral the Speaker of the parliament Nabih Berri and the concerned candidate the Deputy Suleiman Franjieh who believe in the settlement and who tried to make it succeed, at the same time they are committed not to expose their relationship with Hezbollah and Syria for any affect ,and thus the insistence on integrating with them in their decision, since the choice is in the certainty and the confidence not in the embarrassment and the disguised exits, but when Berri and Franjieh stood at this stage the opposite bilateral which consists of the Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri and the Deputy Walid Jumblatt who are the partners in this settlement will not be able to follow up its proceeding without sharing with Berri and Franjieh how to make Hezbollah a full partner in this settlement, this requires the presence of a third bilateral which is Hezbollah and the General Michael Aoun which will participate in the choices and without it there is no settlement, this means what is not done by Berri and Franjieh concening the nomination of a candidate such as Franjieh does not need to be promoted at Hezbollah and Syria, and their insistence on the full announced partnership will not be active if there was another name.

The forth bilateral is the Christian parties which are affiliated in the fourteenth of March along with the church, which was the motive for the rejection of the nomination of the General Aoun and which is related with the trend of Al-Hariri locally and regionally, it seemed  that it is unable to give a courage cover for the nomination of Franjieh that makes him a Christian candidate, for a reason that is more important than the competition for the leadership, it is the Christian mood which the General Aoun has found with his nomination and the sensitivity which caused from any nomination from the team which is accused of marginalizing the Christians, The consideration of these results means that any new nomination is doomed with these elements and will mean the Christian impossibility in front of  a non-leader moderate candidate who is acceptable by Al-Hariri and Jumblatt and who constitutes a source of their satisfaction, thus what is not achieved to Franjieh will not be achieved to others.

It is clear that the nomination of Franjieh is hindered and it does not proceed according to the expectations of those who adopted the nomination, but this nomination will not die and will not be driven away from promoting, it will remain the only reservist option of the nomination of the General Aoun, moreover, the equation will remain either Aoun or Franjieh even after a year, because who has died is the moderater candidate only, this maybe the secret of the relaxation of Hezbollah and Syria to the time and their call for the two allies Aoun and Franjieh to premeditate  and to ensure the cohesion of their alliance because is much precious than the presidency, and because the equation without them was without presidency, and thus for others without presidency.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

2015-12-10 | عدد القراءات 1993