Written by Nasser Kandil,
The context which Saudi Arabia has chosen carefully for an escalation with Iran is similar to disaster of the pilgrimage a few months ago in order to lure a crisis that ascends gradually to an uncontrolled tension, despite the magnitude of the Iranian calamity by the disaster of pilgrimage the Iranian leadership was able to deal with the escalation coldly, it has recorded harsh initial attitudes without turning them into escalation that grants Saudi Arabia the pretext of going on in the escalation. The plea of Saudi Arabia is that the matter was mere an accident that was out of control as long as there were no clues that it was intended. Thus Iran has endured the harm waiting for the coming hour of breaking up , and in order to go on within tracks it started and because it does not want them to be interrupted since it is a victorious, and since it does not want to tolerate with the attempts of luring it to the confrontations that fade the glow of its victory and make the defeated victorious, and because the revenge is coming, it bore patiently till the foreign interventions have produced an embracement to Saudi Arabia, thus it sent a new ambassador to Tehran while it hid behind its back a dagger of new escalation that started with the announcement of a judgment for executing Sheikh Nimr Al-Nimr, thus after days of sending the ambassador to Tehran, Saudi Arabia has implemented the execution, it knows the magnitude of the incident on Iran, moreover it expects the angry reactions, but it begs on them all in order to raise the level of tension and the escalation toward the brink of explosion.
Iran tried to combine between the harsh initial attitude and the cold practical steps , it absorbed the anger which swept its street, without affecting any member of the Saudi diplomatic mission, it is a very difficult challenge within this big incident, but Riyadh has ambushed and upon what has happened it broke its diplomatic relations with Iran under the pretext of what happened to the diplomatic mission, as was the pretext of execution that it was an internal legal matter, just in order to show Iran as a country that it always surpasses the limits in dealing with the regional security, as well as luring the escalation on that background, taking into considerations that Saudi Arabia knows that the escalation depends on two things; driving the Iranians to the ring by the pressure of the street, the anger, and the big magnitude of provocation on one hand, and the reaction of the international and regional abroad to the Saudi position and aligning behind it on the other hand.
Practically the challenge of Iran was to be able to absorb the shocks and to prevent the escalation till the new regional equations develop on which Saudi Arabia will be in the bank of the losers especially in Syria and Yemen. Iran has surpassed the challenge successfully, it’s message to the Security Council was the sorrow for what the Saudi missions have been exposed to, and the adherence to offer the protection for all the missions which Iran hosts, in addition to the investigation in the incidents which have occurred and punishing those who assaulted the Saudi mission, it was a kind of a diplomatic cleverness which affected Saudi Arabia with depression, because if the Iranian response to the assassination of the Sheikh Nimr Al-Nimr was through what happened in the embassy and consulate then what a response! But to be calm and to prevent the escalation by the Saudi provocation is an evidence of the intension of the painful wrenching response in a suitable time and within the manner of eliminating the pretext and the constipation of pain points.
The criteria in the Saudi failure and success remains in how the two regional and international backgrounds receive the escalation with Iran, however the results are very frustrating to Riyadh, that explain the coldness of Tehran on one hand, and it seemed that these cold reactions based on the Iranian coldness on the other hand. As if the whole world agrees with Tehran that the position of Riyadh’s rulers is similar to the furious camel which one must stay out of its way, restrains it and calms down its confusion at the same time not screaming on it, then the punishment will be. What is remarkable is that the Saudi expectations were resolved in favor of gaining the advocacy, in the Gulf countries where there is no value of the position of the rulers of Bahrain because the Saudi National Guard is protecting them from their people, UAE has reduced the level of representation but it refused to break up its relationships with Iran, Kuwait has recalled its ambassador for consultation but it refused to close the embassy or to break up its relations with Iran, Qatar and Oman were without comment, which means in continuing the relationships with Iran and maybe the consultation for a mediation. But what is more remarkable is that America has treated Tehran and Riyadh equally through the communications which the US Secretary of State John Kerry has made with his counterparts Adel Al-Jubeir and Jawad Zarif calling for not escalating, but condemning the execution of Sheikh Nimr and condemning what has happened to the Saudi missions in Tehran, As America, the positions of the two closest allies of Saudi Arabia in the Islamic World Turkey and Pakistan were, through the call for allaying and the announcement of willingness to mediate between Riyadh and Tehran in positions that are similar to what was issued by Moscow the ally of Iran when Iran announced of its readiness to mediate between Moscow and Ankara after dropping the Russian plane.
It is clear that the Saudi escalation stems from outside the appropriate international context, and that Turkey which is the partner of Saudi Arabia through its escalation has received enough messages to be far from pouring the oil on fire, Washington as well has behaved in a harmony with the rules of the new equation in the region, by announcing the end of the phase of the Saudi cuddling, this was the most important outcome which was revealed by the incidents of the last two days, this was the outcome on which the Iranian response will be based after the assassination of Sheikh Nimr, so the coming is inevitable, maybe it will be a group of reactions sequentially as the response of Hezbollah to the assassination of the martyr Samir Al-Kuntar and the Russian response to the assassination of the Russian pilot.
Saudi Arabia wanted to sew a new isolation for Iran, thus it has been afflicted with isolation, the most important is that the Saudi Spinning mill is no longer under the international demand, since its hidden stitches have become bare and a new phase is born.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2016-01-06 | عدد القراءات 1864
