Written by Nasser Kandil,

The path of Genève of Syria raises the confusion among some observers whom the tone of the name itself raises in their memories the dialogues and the negotiations which have been held under the name of the Syrian Genève, For that reason, many do not pay attention to the radical change which controls the new path, therefore the old images remain controlling the new developments because of the difficulty of the liberation of this habit.

The Syrian Genève has started an American project, its title is the attempt of bartering the decision of the war on Syria with a peaceful amendment into the structure of the Syrian country, it based on attracting a part of the political and military leadership by the temptation of the partnership in ruling accompanied with a Russian Iranian encouragement in return of guarantees of preservation of some of the Russian and Iranian interests in the New Syria, the title of the change is the departure of the Syrian President which constitutes the symbol of the independence of Syria and its resisting choice, this was the first American step with Moscow. Because Moscow has refused to give up of the most prominent ally in the Middle East, the first Statement of Genève merged out mysterious and full of contractions, so it was difficult to include the call for the departure of the Syrian President and the call for a government in which the opposition participates under his presidency. The statement has stated about a body that is agreed by the Syrians in order to exercise the rule transitionally till making constitutional amendments that end with elections.

The track of Genève which drawn by America has got complicated because of the difficulty of resolving any of the two choices, the multi-parties military attack on Syria has achieved important gains in the geography, but the  castles of the country remained steadfast after the allies at their forefront Hezbollah and the forces of the resistance have provided them with a direct military presence that required from the American to say that there are no negotiations before amending the balances of power, and required from the allies of Washington in Lebanon to say that there will be no government with Hezbollah till it gets out of Syria. This new balance has established a difficulty in the path of Genève till the American re-decided the military intervention, so he crowded the fleets and the alliances, and when he was confronted with the seriousness of the decision of Syria and the allies from the resistance to Tehran and Moscow to go to the confrontation till the end, it retreated and accepted the political solution for the Syrian chemical weapons.

The original path of Genève was American; it wants to bargain Moscow and Tehran with the security of their issues from the Iranian nuclear issue according to Tehran, to the war in Ukraine according to Moscow and the war of oil and gas for both of them in return of gaining Syria but with an external décor that does not humiliate the allies of Syria the Russian and the Iranian, but it paves the way for balances in the global and regional system with a specific American status for each one of Russia and Iran, thus the American retreat was more than a retreat of a blow, it  was a retreat of a choice, thus the American-Russian negotiations and the American-Iranian negotiations have accelerated and the two understandings about Ukraine and the nuclear issue have been born with conditions that reflect the new balance of powers that reflects the American acceptance of the choice of the partnership, the admission of the inability of continuing the uni-polarity in the international and regional arenas and the parallel recognition of the limitedness of the ability of the allies to do the expected to change the equations of strength in Syria.

With the completion of the understanding on the Iranian nuclear issue and the progress of the settlement track in Ukraine, the qualitative shift which is represented by the Russian military positioning in the fronts of the Syrian war has happened, and the reverse disturbance in the military balances has started, thus the daily victories of the Syrian army have become the summary of the facts in the field. The outcome of dropping the Russian plane by Turkey was the alienation of Turkey of the Syrian equation. With the reinforcement of the regional position of Iran after the nuclear understanding in return of the retreat of the position of the allies of Washington; the Turkish, the Saudi, and the Israeli and their inability of changing the tracks or modifying the rules of engagements and the balances of deterrence and confrontation. Washington has accepted the new concept of Genève which the international resolution 2254 has translated; it continued applying the items of the nuclear understanding with Iran in a reverse way of the desires of its allies, so the content of Genève became resolved, a full partnership with Iran in the Syrian political process in return of roles for the allies of Washington, thus the path of Vienna has been born to translate this transformation, so the admission of that the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and the Syrian army has become the title of this political process and the war on terrorism together, Saudi Arabia which remains alone denying the variables, its failure in the war of Yemen and its inability to lead the isolation of Iran diplomatically can no longer bet but on booby trapping the new Genève.

The Syrian government and the formations of the opposition are exchanging the roles in the ongoing confrontation about Genève in its new form, because of the changing of the sites and the feeling of power and confidence. Today the government is dealing with half of the UN resolution in its clarity, it does not feel that it is in need to hide behind marginal expressions that have been inserted in the original Genève in order to please it, while the Syrian opposition are searching in the UN resolution for a sentence here and there to hide behind. As was the goal of the Syrian government disabling the access to a transitional ruling body, it knows that it is the essence of Genève at that day, while today the opposition is trying to avoid the access for the discussion of constituting a government under the presidency of the President Al-Assad, with the difference is that the bet of the Syrian government is on changing the facts by the force of time, where the stability and the steadfastness have proven their efficiency while the bet of the opposition is on the lame horses, and after the time has proven its decisive speech, neither Saudi Arabia nor France have the keys of change.

It is enough to notice the changeable equation of Genève from the form when the US Secretary of State John Kerry was deciding, while the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavov mediated with the Syrian government to facilitate the acceptance of what could avoid the collision, while today the opposite is exactly happening, Lavrov says “ If the group of Riyadh does not want to come to the negotiations then we will choose a substitute delegation of them” So Kerry runs to mediate and to bring the possible from Riyadh whether rulers or opponents .

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

2016-01-23 | عدد القراءات 1980