Written by Nasser Kandil,
It seems that the image of the military scene in Syria is clear and a consensus point, the military observers who usually express the different sites of any war, reflect in the gray stages of wars away from their expectations their aspirations under the name of analyses that have the feature of objectivity, they present a perception of what the settled plans have of mission to be achieved, the analysts have to achieve the pre-anticipation of the event’s occurrence, and the performance of their mission in the psychological warfare by preparing for it, while when the anticipation starts to occupy the texts of the analysts who belong to different parts of war, then the decisive hour has arrived and the moment of the great transformation in the war has approached, but no one knows the date of its arrival.
This happens in all the wars, in July War 2006 which is the newest one in the memory of the observers among the wars which we know closely, the Israeli analysts remained talking about different expectations of those who belong to the resistance axis, till the day twenty- fourth of the war came, when the massacre of tanks in Al Hujeir valley has occurred and it was no longer possible to promote the theory of the ground war , so the talk started to be similar on the two banks of the war, Hezbollah has got out victorious, however the rockets launchers and the leading and controlling system were still able to continue the war, Israel has failed in achieving any of its goals especially restoring the deterrence ability, and the ceasing-fire has become its demand after it was Hezbollah’s demand.
In the Syrian war the intersection of the analyzes were not between the opposed banks as it is today, because everyone is talking about the impending falling of Aleppo at the hands of the Syrian army even if the interpretations were different as in July War about the reason of this transformation, but the admission of its occurrence seems common. With the expectation of the near restoration of Aleppo by the Syrian army, the next expectation is that Aleppo will be a decisive battle in determining the fate of the entire war, and what will happen in Aleppo is an example for all the combating areas, because what cannot be avoided in Aleppo is not possible to be avoided in other areas, Here is the battle of Turkey the prominent regional player against the Syrian country and the Russian and the Iranian allies, so what it can do is radically different by virtue of geography, the geography of the Turkish abilities and the geography of the Syrian- Turkish interference, because this belongs to its own reasons that surpass its positioning in the alliance which led the war on Syria, even if these reasons have made it in a situation that is similar to Saudi Arabia, when the Syrian army enters to Aleppo, Turkey will be completely out of Syria even if it left tactical margins in the northeast of Syria, in the South there is Jordan not Turkey, and in Qalamoun there is neither Jordan nor Turkey.
When the transformations in the wars accumulate in favor of one team, when the defeats accumulate on one bank, and when the allege starts with the force of the intervention of the opponent’s allies and the weakness of the support and the intervention of the allies, and when the talk becomes about qualitative weapons and sometime about secret weapon that the opponent uses, then the time has arrived and the great transformation has approached, so its arrival becomes expected at any moment specially when the transitions happen in the major fronts in a recorded time that does not equal their military value compared with the ratio of the opposed forces, therefore the collapse comes as a flood and an earthquake without specific date, it just happens .
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2016-02-07 | عدد القراءات 1715
