Written by Nasser Kandil,

Maybe it is a pleasure for some of the opponents of Hezbollah in the small Lebanese local considerations, or those who are positioning themselves in the open engagement line with whatever he says but in another consideration through the source of the funding which decided that Hezbollah is the source of danger, or those who are aware of the position of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah in his gravity and position and according to what he says carefully in the deterrence system against Israel, to deal with what Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah has said in the speech of honoring the leaders the martyrs disparagingly and irrelevantly and maybe with a “ childish” manner, they see in affecting the credibility and the seriousness of what he says a part of an open war on the hearts and minds to sterilize them against the reactions of appearances of Al Sayyed which become a source of concern and insomnia for many of those who stand on the front of hostility.

It can be said objectively that the speech on the occasion of the leaders the martyrs has ascended to the level of the strategic report and a speech of the nation’s situation, or it was a general statement of the lines and steps of the confrontation and the wars which Hezbollah forms a participated part of them, and in many of them it forms their additive value, Al Sayyed has formulated carefully a group of conclusions, and the strategic results in a scene of distributing the forces and their roles and balances, and upon which he drew the maps of expectations, policies, and the positions, The first conclusion,  is that Israel is not managing the conflict between Arab countries which exhaust the efforts of each others, as some have the pleasure to describe the wars of the region, there is an alliance behind which Israel stands publicly and powerfully , it has resolved its matter that it is in the heart of a fateful war according to its vision of the size of interests and the common animosities with which it shares, it is the alliance that is led by Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Al-Qaeda Organization with its formations and affiliations including Al-Nusra and ISIS is not mere a blind jihadist organization that has a sectarian basis. Israel wants to make use of its vitality and to lure it with absurd wars in order to exhaust it and to exhaust the resistance through it, but it is a conscious ally that is aware of its status and its position in the war, as the consciousness of Israel and its awareness of this position and that status since they are two allies that they trust each other. The second conclusions is that America which stands behind managing all that combination of alliances is aware of the difficulties and the troubles which its project confronts, and through which its allies are experiencing, so it feels confused and lives a state of imbalance, because the victories of the resistance alliance which are not shown as a comprehensive victory yet have succeeded till now in frustrating the American project in its multiple renewed versions, and have limited its choices and alternatives.

The reading of Al Sayyed has reached the dynamic track of events and the development of the confrontations in the region on the basis of the pivotal, central and the critical status of the war in Syria towards a crossroad between two choices, the first choice is either the involvement of the Turks and the Saudis supported by the American and the Israeli and through the coordination of Al-Qaeda or without it by extracting the geography which is under the control of ISIS and raising the Turkish –Saudi flag on it or a banner of the opposition affiliations, or the abandonment of this dream and illusion by the recognition of that the Ottoman project with its modern version has lost the last papers, in addition that the Saudi Wahhabi project by recomposing the sectarian Syria has collapsed. The Israeli project of diving Syria has fallen completely. In this case Al-Sayyed has said that we will win in the war of Syria assuring the path of eliminating ISIS, and the control of the Syrian country over the political process in addition to achieving its unity and the winning in the war against terrorism.  Or that the second choice according to Al Sayyed is the involvement of the Turkish and the Saudi in the Syrian geography on which the units of ISIS control with the coordination with it or without coordination, where the American and the Israeli are always ready to support, it is a translation of the priority of the challenge which the alliance of the resistance forms, and the positioning in the opposite regional alliance that includes Turkey and Saudi Arabia publicly. So in this case Al Sayyed has said that we will win in the war of the region, he is confident of that such an involvement will mean a Turkish Saudi involvement in a war that will end with the change of the ruling future of the central pivotal two countries in the American policies and the Israeli bets. This is the reverse birth of the new Middle East that is totally different of the American dreams and the Israeli illusions, thus what will prevent such a choice is the attempt to avoid this disastrous outcome against its owners nothing else.

Israel always reads the process of the confrontations and the balances, the equation of Al Sayyed is that Israel will not emerge to launch its war on the resistance once again this time, only if it ensures a decisive prompt victory, after it had moved from the war of crushing to cordoning, restriction, demonization and distortion through the local regional and international tools. The resistance here according to its leader is confident of its ability to win in the war of attrition which is waged against it morally, security, diplomatically, finically , and in  media through the power of its honesty, credibility and its purity, it is confident of its ability of preventing the enemy of the opportunity of thinking of owning a moment where the decisive prompt victory is possible even on paper, because what it has of defensive and offensive capabilities in every field will ensure that Israel will remain confident of its inability. The balance of the deterrence is extensive and sustainable during the wars of the region, it changes in favor of the resistance in the conditions, capacities, readiness, plans and the moral at the same time, specially because Israel has the nuclear bombs which are ready to receive the resistance’s missiles, from the warehouses of ammonia in Haifa and its chemical factories to the warehouses of Gas, the reactor of Dimona, the stores of fuel in the plants of electricity and the ports and outside them, this makes the effective deterrence weapon of Israel through them as long as the resistance has the missiles which can reach these targets accurately and affecting them.

Al Sayyed has done his duty, has presented his strategic report and has delivered his speech in the state of the nation, he has presented to the leaders the martyrs a statement of the battles of the year, but as usual the Israelis will read and will stop at every letter and comma, but many of those who carry the titles of intellectuals and researchers will find that the belittlement and depreciation are their way to deal with the magnitude of the depth which the speech has shown

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Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

2016-02-20 | عدد القراءات 2158