Written by Nasser Kandil,

The victory of the Syrian army in the historic and the articulated battle in Palmyra is surpassing its geographical, political, and military dimensions which results from the location of Palmyra in the points of linking and connecting between different Syrian areas and provinces, as well as its location in ISIS’s plan to dissociate the parts of the geography of the Syrian army's deployment to reach Al Qalamoun and linking it with Al Zabadani towards Al Qunietra, and this victory is more important than what it asserted of messages about the concept of the truce and its role in restricting the war for a crucial phase through fighting against ISIS and Al-Nusra where the abilities of the army have been mobilized to wage it and they proved their effectiveness, as it showed the reality of what Moscow wanted from the announcement of the withdrawal and what the battles of Palmyra showed of an effective Russian partnership which confirms Russia’s intention to present all the necessary support to enable the Syrian army to achieve its drawn victories.

The valorous battles of Palmyra, plans, and speed show that the Syrian army headed by the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces in Syria, the President of the Republic are providing an example of the ability of eliminating ISIS organization without achieving the almost impossible conditions which were presented by the West and supported by its allies, by linking the war on ISIS with a new map for the Middle East. The Syrian army undertook by saying that the divisional maps will not survive when the army approaches from achieving its goals, this is in itself a military political achievement that prevents the discussion about the function of the negotiating process for a political solution as a condition to ensure the wining in the war on terrorism, thus Syria will restore through this victory its status as a first regional force that can achieve revocable full fast victory against the organization which Europe and the West worry about the future of their security.

Within the coming months similar examples of Palmyra will be repeated, while Geneva is entering its fifth and sixth round, the summer will come and US President needs a victory in which he participates in the war on ISIS, because that grants its party golden points in the crucial elections,furthermore, the regional allies are constituting the alliances of the war on terrorism they observe Hezbollah while their hearts are with ISIS and Al Nusra, this is known fully by the America, thus the American partnership with Syria will become an American need even if the political solution delays and the Saudi joining in the settlements train delays comparing with the American timing.

Within the coming weeks Palmyra’s battle will pave the way for the battles of Arsal and the barrens of Ras Baalbek, because the armed groups became weak and the supply lines were stopped.  According to the information provided by Washington the American may find in the encouraging the Lebanese army to communicate with the Syrian army and to coordinate with it and with Hezbollah the first new messages which will change the two regional and Lebanese scenes, and Washington which classifies Hezbollah as a terrorist for a time out of its adherence to the requirements of the Israeli security sees that Hezbollah's Southern acts are terrorism while its Northern and Eastern acts are a struggle against the terrorism, as Jeffry Feltman repeats his call for his Lebanese friends to mediate to send these messages to Hezbollah.

From the messages Feltman says that the final word regarding the presidency in Lebanon returned to be a matter that belongs to the President Bashar Al-Assad and Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah, after the opportunity of November has passed, moreover the attempt of inserting the election of the Deputy Suleiman Franjieh within a settlement that embarrasses the President Al-Assad and Al Sayyed Nasrollah and having their consensus reluctantly to abandon the nomination of the General Michael Aoun did not succeed, because the adherence of Al Sayyed Nassrollah and the President Al-Assad to Aoun has surprised all, and caused the failure of the bet which became an issue in media, furthermore, Franjieh has surprised all by putting his relationship with Hezbollah in an advanced status to the joining of a political alliance that supports his arrival to Baabda Palace.

What will the Head of the Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea do toward all the information which flaws in front of him but the escalation against Hezbollah and Al Sayyed Nasrollah and beholding them the responsibility of not allowing the arrival of the General Aoun to presidency as a preparation for announcing the withdrawal of the nomination, and the return to the camp of the Fourteenth of March to choose a consensual president after “he did the impossible to facilitate the nomination of Aoun and it was proven that Hezbollah does not want him as a president” all of these were an anticipation of the turning of Aoun to an only candidate that has the reasons and the abilities of to arrive to Baabda, thus the nomination is originally is a suicidal process to prevent the arrival of Franjieh to presidency about whom everything was proving the impossibility of refusing him as an alternative presidential option  for the nomination of General Aoun by Hezbollah, but maybe through forming a Christian veto by an alliance of  the group of Aoun and the Lebanese Forces it can compensate the joining of Hezbollah to the supporters of the nomination of Franjieh hoping to prevent his arrival, like the historical recalling of how the Tripartite Agreement in 1985was overthrown.

Geagea was knowing that his joining to nominate Aoun was not because of what he has said of reasons, because all of them were a year a half before the announcement, he did not present any convincing answer about the timing which explains alone the resorting to the presidential camp of Aoun after a year and a half of the vacancy, the timing is a serious nomination of Franjieh which Geagea is afraid that Hezbollah will adopt it, even if he is confident in advance of Hezbollah’s position to avoid this positioning which will become a burden after months, as he knows that his joining to Aoun’s camp was not effective for the arrival of Aoun to Baabda, because Geagea has made his dispute with Hezbollah his issue that excels what is supposed that it is his current  election, he did not make any effort with his allies led by Al Mustaqbal Movement to just open a dialogue with the General Aoun, it was enough to make between his ally the Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri and his candidate the General Michael Aoun a relationship that is similar to the relationship which Hezbollah has made between the President Nabih Berri and the General Michael Aoun, but Geagea talked a lot in favor of whom share with him this nomination but he did not talk about who refuse it, this resolves the debate that his issue has ended with alienating the nomination of Franjieh as a president,  he knows that this was because of Hezbollah not because of his joining to the presidential camp of Geagea which may not last long after what is beyond Palmyra.

The Deputy Walid Jumblatt who has slowed in determining his presidential choice seems that he is the most serious in studying the variables, even out of worry but he has an old saying” if we have to accept the General Aoun as a president, then let us do this like it seems a Lebanese voluntary choice before it appears as a submission to an external will where the Syrian President is an essential part of its formulation.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

2016-03-30 | عدد القراءات 1877