Written by Nasser Kandil,

The deliberateness in reading between lines in the Russian American understanding in its new version leads to the conclusion that Russia has received an American proposal for Saudi Turkish demands to return back in the form of the truce which is adopted by Washington, knowing that the US Secretary of State John Kerry has proposed it as the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, the basis of this proposal is to postpone the action of excluding Al Nusra from the truce’s provisions and to restrict this exception with ISIS, as well as the cooperation to ensure ceasing-fire in all the areas which are outside the dominance of ISIS in exchange of the pledge of ensuring the commitment of Al Nusra to the truce and the return of the group of Riyadh to the negotiations, but the speech of Lavrov was decisive by refusing this proposal, so the situation remains explosive.

The Turkish Saudi disguise with the partnership of the group of Riyadh remained on the existence of Al Nusra and the description ofthe whole confrontation in the Northern of Syria as a war between the country and the opposition. Turkey and Saudi Arabia have provided all their capacities financially, and have provided the armaments and the mobilization to ensure excellent opportunities to wage a harsh war in the northern of Syria hoping to oblige Moscow to change its considerations. But in front of Moscow’s insistence on keeping the temporary regime of calm till Washington resolves its position between returning to the truce’s provisions, which exclude Al Nusra or the collapse of the truce along with Geneva form and Vienna’s understandings, and the resorting to the field under Syrian mobilizations and an intense presence of Iranian units and elite troops of Hezbollah, Washington has continued the negotiations from the Meeting of Paris which included all the allies of Washington in the war of Syria, it has tried to make dual negotiations with those who met in Paris and on the other bank with Moscow, Iran , and through them with Damascus  in order to reach for a formula that puts the matter in Syria within the range of settlement, and ends with a formula of a full victory and a full defeat. Washington expects that the defeat will be in favor of its allies even if the winner has paid a high cost.

Washington has proposed and has received lots of proposals, but Moscow remained linking everything with the position toward Al Nusra, the Saudi Turkish proposal showed that the situation in Aleppo and its countryside till the Turkish borders must be resolved as areas that belong to the opposition and under the coverage of the truce in order to revive the truce and Geneva,it calledto ignore asking about classifying the army of Islam and Ahrar Al Sham on the lists of terrorism and to accept the exclusiveness of the group of Riyadh's representation in its current form, in return of re-applying the truce and accepting the exclusion of Al Nusra from it. What Kerry and Lavrov agreed on was that everything depends on identifying the sites and areas that are under the dominance of Al Nusra according to the field and the intelligence information of the Americans and the Russians, which do not put Al Nusra outside Aleppo and its countryside but they estimate the behavior of AhrarAl Sham and the Army of Islam according to how they behave toward the war on Al Nusra, with the confirming of the closure of the Turkish Syrian borders at the points of the dominance of Al Nusra and ISIS in the beginning, and the confirmation  that the return to Geneva is not conditioned, and that the matter which is related to the delegation of the group of Riyadh and its form is deferred as the matter of expanding the representation of the opposition which has been resolved.

Everything after resolving the war with Al Nusra will be resolved. This is the Russian position and this is the position which Washington accepted, it went to its allies and has issued supportive statements, but within the next week all the allies of Washington will prepare what they thought as traps to bomb the agreement in the coming Vienna Meeting which must approve this understanding as a preparation for the return to Geneva, and accomplishing maps by the American Russian operational room in Geneva that can determine the sites of Al Nusra, ISIS, and the group of Riyadh which will be covered by the truce, in addition to the mixed areas which their resolving is required by the group of Riyadh either by having control on them or by withdrawing from them.

Apart from details and their discussion, the essence of the understanding is presenting Russian facilities to resolve with Al Nusra, it seems that they are agreed facilitations by Iran and Syria, thus the question is about what is going to be if the armed groups that are supported by Washington’s allies were unable to implement the commitments, and what is going to be if they have implemented them, in the first condition they will put themselves outside the American coverage that allows considering them as an extension of Al Nusra, thus their employers the Turks and the Saudis will get out totally from the equation, while in the second condition they will be marginal force militarily in the era after Al Nusraand their limit and the political limit of Turkey and Saudi Arabia will be as the magnitude of their presence, in two cases Moscow seems that it succeeded in imposing the essence of its strategic goals as a roadmap, thus the new shift will be a detailed translation for Munich and Vienna understandings which the mystery of applying is still controlling over them.

The war of Al Nusra is coming, so the direct of the considerations in Syria will change with it.

Translated by LinaShehadeh,

2016-05-14 | عدد القراءات 2256