Written by Nasser Kandil,

The Americans ventured in playing on the brinkmanship, it is the game which the former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that it is the game of the Syrian late President Hafez Al-Assad, which seems today the plan of the President Bashar Al-Assad, so the American eruptions have turned into platforms for further eruptions that take the aspect of challenge and raises the question, is there any more?

It can easily imagine the slight smile of the US Secretary of State as a partner who was beheld the responsibility of compromising the prestige of America by his local opponents who are led by the Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter and the traditional allies of Washington from Saudi Arabia and Israel in particular, and the armed factions who agree without the declaration publicly that getting rid of Al Nusra front means the end of what they have called it one day “the Syrian revolution” he observes what is going on, today he adopts the speech of his opponents by beholding Russia and Syria the responsibility of what is going on, the collapse of the truce, and the failure of its applying. He added overbidding on his rivals and opponents that Syria is responsible for what has happened in Deir Al-Zour.

Kerry knows that Syria has paved the way for applying the understanding through applying what is related to it for a whole week as a practical stopping of the attacks of its army, and ceasing its offensive fire confining them with narrow limits of the temporal reactions or where the fight is revolving with Al Nusra front as Al Queitra fronts or with ISIS as the fronts of Palmyra and Deir Al Zour. Kerry knows as well that the stumbling of the entry of the aids was due to the conditions which required counter conditions. The issue is related to Syria by preventing the profit of the armed groups from these aids and prevents them from controlling them. The most important thing according to Syria is to test the US intentions of the serious cooperation in the war on Al Nusra, but the US raids have targeted the Syrian army in Deir Al Zour to facilitate the attacks which targeted the army by ISIS. This means; the US indication of freezing the understanding or the attempt of giving it different meaning through selective application which requires the Syrian announcement of the end of the truce with the start of the common cooperation against Al Nusra without any indications of the possibility of achieving that.

Kerry stands wondering observing the US interior and the allied exterior, now we are between two options either burying the understanding or reviving it with more difficult conditions, so what do you want? I am ready and at your service. This time I will not give you the opportunity of accusing me of carelessness, I am waiting your answers to go to the next step. Kerry added; do you have plan “B” if the understanding fell, he got an answer; we want to stick to the truce and revive it, then he announced the call for the Russian American common committees to continue their efforts to revive the truce and the effects of the cooperation according to the understanding.

The return to the phase before the understanding means the return to an equation in which the Syrian army takes the military initiative, in other words; the armed groups will pay the high cost in everywhere, while fronts such us the eastern of Aleppo will collapse and will witness a fate that is similar to many areas that have local settlements with the country, while the fronts of Al-Quneitra will witness an escalation, where the Israeli will not be able to keep up with Syria through its ready ceiling to go to any confrontation. Here the war is missiles; it will ensure of stimulating something which is not desired to be done neither by the Americans nor by its allies, and the return to the phase before the understanding that the temptations of hitting the Kurdish line are able to attract the Turks once again as they have attracted them before to a nearer positioning. So will the Americans bear a new test? Do they really have plan “B”?

Washington does not have time and does not have the ability to go to war, it needs this understanding as a prelude to understandings that draw the roles in the Asian mainland that overlooking the Mediterranean from the convergence of Russia, China, and Iran through Afghanistan in early next year, and the departure of the US forces from it. Within the heart of these roles where the presence of Iran allows and grants through its overlooking the Gulf and its connection with the Mediterranean through Iraq and Syria the future of each of the crises of Syria and Yemen, without that the Americans have to choose between accepting the getting out of Asia and what this means of international equations that make from it a second rate country, or postponing the withdrawal from Afghanistan for two additional years which means to the end of 2018 and accepting till that date wars depending on the assumptions of the losses , that enable the new president to take decisions  and moving towards  wider confrontations or harsher settlements?

If the Americans decide that then the remorse will be their companion for signing the understanding on the Iranian nuclear program, because it is the pivotal file in the equations of Asia, and it is the most important title for mobilizing the allies and the US public opinion for the confrontations. But the understanding has frustrated all these opportunities. Therefore the party of the Democratic presidential candidate who leads the escalation today and those who support the current Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter has to wonder whether they have to move to the bank of supporting the Republican candidate Donald Trump since he is the reasonable for the call to abolish the understanding on the nuclear issue, and he can link the plans of the escalation with each other without stammering because he depends on a zero equation in considering the understandings. Is this plan “B” for Trump, postponing the withdrawal from Afghanistan which the Republican the Secretary of Defense sought to it in the era of the Democratic Barack Obama and who is affiliated in the party of the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton? Or is it a scream that will fade while testing the bitter fact which is the one who gets old and lost the ability of the initiative, going to war, and adjusting the balances is America not only the administration of Obama alone, because it has come on the ruins of the plans of the war of the Republicans which was represented in its most features and moments by the strength of the former President George W Bush?

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

2016-09-22 | عدد القراءات 2475