Written by Nasser Kandil,
When the Lebanese President the General Michael Aoun, who was elected by an internal consent in which the closest ally to Saudi Arabia participated effectively, has accepted the invitation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to visit it, and when he made it his first abroad visit complying with the Saudi desire, while Saudi Arabia is still classifying Hezbollah the closest ally to the General Aoun before becoming a President, and the party which bore the biggest sacrifices by sticking to his nomination, till this sticking has formed a reason for others to think of nominating him, then the rulers of Riyadh must conclude one of three things, either to indulge in the illusions promoted by some of those who work with them in Lebanon about a change that may affect Aounand can bet on it in weakening his alliance with Hezbollah towards the bet on inducing him, or to be considered that the President Aoun is putting spaces in his options concerning his alliances, and that he has a message from accepting this invitation and this favoring, or that visit in its comfortable image for the Saudi Arabia is an occasion chosen by the President Aoun with the coordination with Hezbollah and its consent, and has a functionaccording to their common concept of presidency and the relation with Saudi Arabia.
The first hypothesis ofbetting on changing the constants of the General Aoun and his alliances is superficial and naïve, the rulers of Riyadh must not fall in it, since they know that the General Aoun has preferred his alliance with Hezbollah to the sticking of presidency repeatedly, he has bore all the accusations and the campaigns before and during the war of July 2006 and after it, before the Seventh of May 2008, during it and after it, before and during the mandate of the General Michael Suleiman and after it, and at the inauguration speech he talked about the resistance and the preemptive war against the terrorism, presenting the coverage for the partnership of Hezbollah in the war in Syria. So the obvious question to those who imagine that the General Aoun may change his position toward the regional policies, is it possible for the one who kept his options when they were reason for the losses and the sacrifices to abandon them while they are winning. He was explaining to his supporters the source of his confidence in victory by saying, In Lebanon the team which loses regionally cannot win, and the team which wins regionally cannot be defeated. What can Saudi Arabia offer for the one whom it invites to its alliance after its only arena became a stammered war in Yemen, it has lost in Syria and has become out of Iraq. Washington has ignored it in its understandings with Iran; even its relation with the new US administration is full of problems. The international arena says through its variables that the Lebanese President Michael Aoun will have better relationship with Washington, Paris, and surely with Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran than the rulers of Riyadh.
The second and the third hypotheses have the same content by providing an opportunity to Saudi Arabia to keep what the Lebanese President who is an ally with Hezbollah has given to it, and thus in favor of Lebanon, either the message was in a coordination with Hezbollah according to the third hypothesis or by the General Aoun himself without a coordination, from his own way which he follows in practicing his independency. The assumed message based on ending the Lebanese Saudi disputes which the former Lebanese Foreign Minister and the current Minister the Head of the Free Patriotic Movement GebranBassilwas the targeted title of the Saudi procedures. The origin of the disputes is accusing Hezbollah of terrorism and the refusal of Lebanon of such an accusation. Ending the disputes start with a quiet dialogue about the relationship with Hezbollah and its classification. But after everything that happened in the region, Lebanon became the safe convenient bridge for Saudi Arabia toward a prosperous dialogue with Iran and later with Syria. This is an interest of Lebanon but originally it is a Saudi interest, after the crisis of the region and everything has become clear.
It is not necessary for Aoun to propose particular initiative, his visit and accepting the Saudi desire to make it the start of his external visits is the initiative. Making positive procedures for Lebanon and the Lebanese people is the response for the initiative, through the return of the tourists, reopening the deportees file, reevaluate the position toward the gift of armament for Lebanon, as the encouragement of Lebanon and its President toward adopting an open position on all the active parties in the region to save the unity among the Lebanese, and an expression of the role of Lebanon as a bridge of a dialogue. The most important of the Saudi expression in understanding the presidency will be a flexible different speech by the Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri toward the opponents of Saudi Arabia in Iran and Syria, after the Saudis have liberated him from the demands of employing his constitutional position as a Lebanese Prime Minister in an incompatible way with all the norms and the assets to be hostile to the opponents of Saudi Arabia not the opponent of Lebanon, while the policy by Al-Hariri that is similar to the policy of Aoun in its openness on all can create quiet climates regionally and quieter climates in Lebanon.
The first statements of Al-Hariri after the visit of Aoun will reveal the good or the bad Saudi reactions, because they are more important than the Saudi decisions carried by the General Aoun, and will be subject to the multidirectional interpretation between a bet on the first hypothesis and the understanding of the second and third hypotheses.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
2017-01-14 | عدد القراءات 2627
